N.O. NWS now sounds a little concerned about Emily.

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N.O. NWS now sounds a little concerned about Emily.

#1 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 13, 2005 5:57 am

This is from this morning's NWS N.O. discussion for 7-13-05

OLD REMNANTS OF DENNIS WILL FINALLY BE PICKED UP IN THE WESTERLIES
STARTING SAT MORNING. BY THIS TIME, EXTENDED MODEL GUID SHOWS
EMILY IN THE CARRIBEAN. AS OLD DENNIS MOVES NE, THE UPPER TROUGH
PICKING IT UP BEGINS TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF CAUSING IT
TO WEAKEN A BIT. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING SOME STRONG MCS FEATURES
SWINGING OUT FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH STARTING THIS FRIDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO ADVERTISED TO STAY PUT OVER OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE RUN. THE GLOBAL SUITES ALSO
SHOW EMILY MOVING ON A WNW COURSE INTO MEXICO. WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE LATER SOLUTIONS OF THE GLOBAL SUITES AS A WEAKNESS BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF REGION STARTING SUNDAY. STAY TUNED...

This is from Mobile, AL.

...EVENTUALLY APPROACHING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE LATEST OFFICIAL
NWS/NHC TRACK. FROM WHERE WE SIT...EMILY REMAINS A LONG WAY OUT TO
BE RELIABLY FORECAST TO AN ACCEPTABLE DEGREE OF PRECISION. IF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND NORTHERN GULF IS NOT AS STRONG
AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE TRACK MAY HAVE TO
BE ADJUSTED. BUT...WE SEE NO REASON AT THIS TIME TO EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO THE RIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO WORRY
ABOUT ANY EFFECTS FROM EMILY IN ANY CASE. WE HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
THE SUMMER SEABREEZE REGIME GOING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NO
EFFECTS FROM EMILY IN THE OFFICIAL NWS FORECAST.
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