What will DR. Grey's numbers be now?

mobilebay · #1 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 3:42 am

What will he predict on his next update? 17-20 storms? I can't believe this is happening, it is unreal. Who would have ever thought we would have this kind of activity during July. I knew about the warm SST's and really thought we would have one early Cape Verde storm but I never in a million years thought this would happen. I mean every wave that exits Africa has a good chance at development. I have a feeling that from here on out all seasons will be judged by this one. People I think we are discussing a season that will be talked about forever.

#2 Postby **TampaFl** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 3:45 am

You are right. If you stop and thik about it, it really is really scary in the fact that what will August and September bring if it is this busy now! :eek:

Robert

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #3 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 3:46 am

I agree...Plus theres a developing system near the Cape verdes this morning. I think Gray will up his numbers to at least 16...(He go's low)

mobilebay · #4 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 3:49 am

Dr. Grey has said many times that most of his numbers are for the August-October time frame. So unless he thinks there will be a reduction in activity during this time period his numbers will be higher than 16. JMHO

weatherwindow · #5 Postby **weatherwindow** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 4:28 am

i believe grey will say 19 on the aug update....and i then think he will up it again on 1 sept(he now does a sept only and an oct only forecast and will take that opportunity to kick it up to 21 or 22). IMO, the season will go remainder of the season will go one of two ways. first, and most likely, this period of hyper activity will taper off around by the end of the third week of july. followed, perhaps, by a short lull until the beginning of aug. shortly thereafter, another spurt of activity during the first two weeks of august, followed by a 7-10 day lull. activity recommences during the last week of august and carries thru the 2nd week of sept. then another lull of 7-10 days with the final spurt beginning during the last week of sept in the western caribbean. remains very active thru the 3rd week of oct. finally winds down with a remnant one or two storms post october....that, IMHO, is the pattern with will yield 21-22 ns. the alternative scenario, which yields a busy but not overwhelming season, carries the current spurt thru the end of the month. followed by a relatively quiet august. activity recommences in the first week of september in a brief 7 day spurt. the remainder of sept is fairly quiet and the season ends with a 10 day spurt in early oct...........i would say more except my crystal ball is covered in fingerprints....oh yes, the last scenario would yield about 15ns storm.......rich :roll:

#6 Postby **dhweather** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:05 am

mobilebay wrote:Dr. Grey has said many times that most of his numbers are for the August-October time frame. So unless he thinks there will be a reduction in activity during this time period his numbers will be higher than 16. JMHO

I think you are dead on with that.

He just adds on the june-july actual numbers, so I'd suspect he'll be near
20 named storms.

#7 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:07 am

Same as before, 15.

#8 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:49 am

At this pace?

37 Named Storms
25 Hurricanes
14 Intense

Seriously though...I would believe he has no choice but to bump the numbers up. No statistical scheme would account 5 or 6 named storms in June/July given the curve is heavily weighted to Aug/Sep/Oct.

I wouldn't be at all suprised if the NS number gets bumped to 18 or 19.

MW

What will DR. Grey's numbers be now?

What will DR. Grey's numbers be now?

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