18:00z Models

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cycloneye
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18:00z Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:55 pm

TROPICAL STORM EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050712 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050712 1800 050713 0600 050713 1800 050714 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.1N 52.0W 11.3N 55.0W 11.7N 58.2W 12.4N 61.4W
BAMM 11.1N 52.0W 11.5N 55.1W 12.0N 58.4W 12.7N 61.7W
A98E 11.1N 52.0W 11.2N 55.4W 11.4N 58.6W 11.9N 61.6W
LBAR 11.1N 52.0W 11.2N 55.1W 11.7N 58.6W 12.3N 62.4W
SHIP 45KTS 56KTS 67KTS 77KTS
DSHP 45KTS 56KTS 67KTS 77KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050714 1800 050715 1800 050716 1800 050717 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 64.4W 15.3N 70.4W 17.0N 77.0W 18.5N 83.4W
BAMM 13.7N 64.9W 15.7N 71.3W 17.3N 78.4W 18.5N 85.5W
A98E 12.4N 64.3W 14.0N 69.5W 15.6N 74.6W 17.0N 80.0W
LBAR 13.1N 66.1W 15.2N 72.8W 17.0N 78.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 86KTS 96KTS 99KTS 95KTS
DSHP 86KTS 96KTS 99KTS 95KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 52.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 48.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 45.4W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 45NM

Image

A little more spread at long range with some going to Yucatan
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dwg71
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#2 Postby dwg71 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:58 pm

The South and West trend continues, lets hope it avoids us mainland altogether.
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bucman1
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Any possibility of it moving in the southastern gulf?

#3 Postby bucman1 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:00 pm

:roll:
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micktooth
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#4 Postby micktooth » Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:07 pm

Looks like with this trend if it holds, the US may be spared a hit. It's still too early but hopefully this trend will continue.
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HouTXmetro
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#5 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:10 pm

That ridge must be a monster right about now. Wondering why the UKMET is so far north.
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Stormcenter
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#6 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:11 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:That ridge must be a monster right about now. Wondering why the UKMET is so far north.



Hmmmmm I do too.
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dwg71
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#7 Postby dwg71 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:18 pm

It seems the UKMET is always the last to jump on board...

Look at the initialization point, its been having a hard time finding a center. Its ok though, the NHC has struggled with that as well.
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