Emily looking worse on satellite...

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
pcolaguy

Emily looking worse on satellite...

#1 Postby pcolaguy » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:56 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Last few frames... convection dying out...

But, does it look like it is trying to wrap on the right side of it?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#2 Postby feederband » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:19 pm

Looks to me that its just reorganizing itself weak ts do that..
0 likes   
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#3 Postby dwg71 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:22 pm

or a sign of it dissapating.. the further south it stays the better for US. I just want this one to go away.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:
Contact wx247

#4 Postby wx247 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:23 pm

Visible shot seems to show some better outflow and organization within the last couple of shots even though we have lost the deepest thunderstorms. Pressure at NRL is now up to 1001... not a huge change mind you, but is up a mb. It will be interesting to see what the afternoon holds.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Scorpion

#5 Postby Scorpion » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:23 pm

I agree. I just never had a feeling this storm would amount to much. Maybe a TS/Cat 1 at most. Something like Chantal. Except its going to Texas instead of Mexico.
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#6 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:44 pm

This weakening trend, while possibly slamming into the South American airmass, could very easily result in destruction of the center and opening into a wave.

This would make the wave behind it more likely to take over, but that is never a guarantee either. See how difficult these systems are to predict!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#7 Postby x-y-no » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:45 pm

This isn't going away. I expect strengthening to start once she passes west of about 55w or so.

Jan
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#8 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:48 pm

wx247 wrote:Visible shot seems to show some better outflow and organization within the last couple of shots even though we have lost the deepest thunderstorms. Pressure at NRL is now up to 1001... not a huge change mind you, but is up a mb. It will be interesting to see what the afternoon holds.


It has been always 1001 mb.

My guess is that she is moving to fast to keep up with organization.
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#9 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:49 pm

This is still July and the Caribbean Zone is still ahead of it. Storms weakening while entering the Caribbean graveyard have a much worse chance than intensifying ones...
0 likes   
Top
Gulf Stream
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 13
Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:41 pm
Location: Daphne, AL
Contact:
Contact Gulf Stream

#10 Postby Gulf Stream » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:52 pm

dwg71 wrote:or a sign of it dissapating.. the further south it stays the better for US. I just want this one to go away.


Please forgive a newbie question.....I have seen this referred to in a couple of places here. What makes the "area further South" so disruptive to a system's development?

....BTW, finally registered here after lurking and learning from you guys for the past 10 months or so (found this site during Ivan).
Ya'lls info has been very helpful to me here at work, as I have to "work thru" these storms here in the Mobile area.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:
Contact wx247

#11 Postby wx247 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:53 pm

Sanibel wrote:This is still July and the Caribbean Zone is still ahead of it. Storms weakening while entering the Caribbean graveyard have a much worse chance than intensifying ones...


I don't see this dying.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
pcolaguy

#12 Postby pcolaguy » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:53 pm

Sanibel wrote:This is still July and the Caribbean Zone is still ahead of it. Storms weakening while entering the Caribbean graveyard have a much worse chance than intensifying ones...


More like Caribbean oasis, just ask Dennis.
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#13 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:57 pm

Ask Earl about that oasis. Because one storm beats climatology doesn't mean the next one will. I'm not saying this will definitely break down, but it is currently doing what such storms do.



July storms hugging the coast of South America sometimes get impacted by land-type weather features. Sometimes "heat Lows" blow turbulence over the storm causing it to weaken...
Last edited by Sanibel on Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#14 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:58 pm

x-y-no wrote:This isn't going away. I expect strengthening to start once she passes west of about 55w or so.

Jan


Agreed. The fact that we have a named storm so far east in Mid-July is a feat in itself. Conditions will only become more favorable and waters warmer farther west.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
wx247
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14279
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
Location: Monett, Missouri
Contact:
Contact wx247

#15 Postby wx247 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:00 pm

Yes... dry air can get sucked into the system from South America. I think that is a bigger concern at this point for the death of the system rather than its current state. Just looks to be getting better organized to me.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#16 Postby dwg71 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:01 pm

Im not an expert, but it looks to me on the WV loop of a storm that is weaking at a pretty good rate.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#17 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:03 pm

The culprit could also be from behind. The High that is currently pushing Emily south of west could contain SAL inhibition. With the graveyard ahead the prognosis is tenuous...
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#18 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:17 pm

Another possibility is a center shift north...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#19 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:19 pm

NHC made mention that this thing is in some really dry air yesterday...I have a feeling this may be why its still at TS...however, they did say it will be coming into a more favorable enviroment for strgthn....i would tend to agree..
0 likes   
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#20 Postby dwg71 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:19 pm

Sanibel wrote:Another possibility is a center shift north...


IMO, i dont see anything to suggest that.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: gib, jhpigott, MetroMike, Sciencerocks and 340 guests