12:00z Models=A little more stronger,45kts,1001 mbs,270,18kt

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cycloneye
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12:00z Models=A little more stronger,45kts,1001 mbs,270,18kt

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 12, 2005 7:52 am

TROPICAL STORM EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050712 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050712 1200 050713 0000 050713 1200 050714 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 50.5W 11.3N 53.2W 11.8N 56.1W 12.4N 59.0W
BAMM 11.0N 50.5W 11.4N 53.6W 11.7N 56.7W 12.3N 59.8W
A98E 11.0N 50.5W 11.1N 54.2W 11.5N 57.6W 12.1N 60.8W
LBAR 11.0N 50.5W 11.3N 53.9W 11.6N 57.4W 12.2N 61.1W
SHIP 45KTS 57KTS 69KTS 81KTS
DSHP 45KTS 57KTS 69KTS 81KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050714 1200 050715 1200 050716 1200 050717 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.4N 61.9W 15.9N 67.7W 18.1N 73.8W 19.5N 79.6W
BAMM 13.3N 62.8W 15.6N 68.7W 17.8N 75.1W 19.4N 81.5W
A98E 12.8N 63.6W 14.9N 68.8W 17.1N 73.8W 19.0N 79.3W
LBAR 12.9N 64.8W 15.4N 71.3W 17.9N 76.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 89KTS 101KTS 105KTS 103KTS
DSHP 89KTS 101KTS 92KTS 99KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 50.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 46.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 44.4W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

It is still moving 270 west good news for Puerto Rico but bad news for points in the western caribbean.Ship has it now as a major cane 105kts in 96 hours.And also is moving more fast.

Image

Refresh it.
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#2 Postby wx247 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 7:58 am

Looks like we have two initialization points.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:00 am

wx247 wrote:Looks like we have two initialization points.


Oh the grafic has not updated that is why you see it more behind the 12:00 initial position of 11.0n-50.5w.
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:03 am

Ok it's now updated with the 12:00z inicial position. :)
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#5 Postby StormWarning1 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:08 am

The GFDL, the model furthest North, has it initialized to far East and North. Or the graphic has not updated.
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#6 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:11 am

It has really sped up overnight.
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#7 Postby Agua » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:11 am

Cycloneye,
The graphic can't be TS Emily. Look at the model initilizations: 11 N 50.5 W. Whatever is depicted in that graphic representation is already west of 65 W.
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#8 Postby wx247 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:12 am

Mine has the GFDL, UKMET, and NHC in a different initialization position from the rest of the models. Am I just not refreshed or is this how it is looking for everyone?
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:12 am

StormWarning1 wrote:The GFDL, the model furthest North, has it initialized to far East and North. Or the graphic has not updated.


It's only that models GFDL and also UKMET which initial position is more east.The rest of the guidance is updated at 11.0n-50.5w.
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#10 Postby wx247 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:13 am

Agua wrote:Cycloneye,
The graphic can't be TS Emily. Look at the model initilizations: 11 N 50.5 W. Whatever is depicted in that graphic representation is already west of 65 W.


huh?
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#11 Postby Agua » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:14 am

Huh. Now the grahic refreshed or something. Nevermind.
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#12 Postby wx247 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:14 am

cycloneye wrote:
StormWarning1 wrote:The GFDL, the model furthest North, has it initialized to far East and North. Or the graphic has not updated.


It's only that models GFDL and also UKMET which initial position is more east.The rest of the guidance is updated at 11.0n-50.5w.


Right ok... so I am seeing the right image. I thought I was. lol
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#13 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:14 am

wx247 wrote:Mine has the GFDL, UKMET, and NHC in a different initialization position from the rest of the models. Am I just not refreshed or is this how it is looking for everyone?


That's right... the UKMET is still the 6z run, the NHC track is from 5am EDT.
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#14 Postby StormWarning1 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:14 am

UKMET is only updated at 06Z and 18Z. NHC is updated after the next advisory. GFDL is using the 06Z initialization point for the 12Z run
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#15 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:14 am

Agua wrote:Huh. Now the grahic refreshed or something. Nevermind.


That is why I always say refresh it. :)
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#16 Postby wx247 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:15 am

I am officially not crazy... well, ok, I might be crazy but at least I am not seeing things.
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:17 am

To clarify UKMET and GFDL are not initialized at 12:00z that is why they start back from the Bam models.
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#18 Postby wx247 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:26 am

cycloneye wrote:To clarify UKMET and GFDL are not initialized at 12:00z that is why they start back from the Bam models.


I knew that but for some reason my brain isn't working this morning.
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#19 Postby Nimbus » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:40 am

Nope WX247 crazy is when you start hearing Gwen Stefani lyrics and rush over to your area 51 links to check the black mailbox for secret messages.

This just looks like a shift in tracks.
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:45 am

Not much agreement the models have of a specific track, but looks like we have our second hurricane and second major hurricane in our hands.
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