TD 5 becoming better organized

#1 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:06 pm

Over the last few hours TD has continued to become better organized. Banding features are noted and the LLC is underneath the deep convection. Outflow continues to improve...IMO we have Emily--probablly a 45mph storm....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

margaritabeach · #2 Postby **margaritabeach** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:08 pm

also seems to my untrained eye that IT, (not she), is trying to gain some to latitude

Scorpion · #3 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:08 pm

The more organized it gets the further north it will go...

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:11 pm

I forecast this last night, hopefully it won't get too strong.

Website · #5 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:11 pm

That really looks like Emily to me...

Scorpion · #6 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:12 pm

If it gets stronger today quickly then I wouldnt rule out a Frances scenario.

#7 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:13 pm

As she organizes the trend of a more northerly component is very evident this afternoon...At this point my model of choice is the GFDL. I think it has a good handle on Emily at this point.

#8 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:13 pm

Looks like the TD still has some vertical alignment issues.

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:14 pm

This morning I posted a thread saying TD 5 less organized this morning.But that was this morning and now is afternoon as things ae changing.

Hurricaneman · #10 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:16 pm

Shes organizing quickly

Scorpion · #11 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:16 pm

I agree. Looking good now. 50 mph wouldnt surprise me by the end of the day.

x-y-no · #12 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:17 pm

Sure looks to me like it has gained a little bit af latitude too. Part of that may be an illusion caused by the burst of convection in the NW quadrant, though.

I'm impatiently awaiting that 5pm advisory. :-)

Jan

#13 Postby **NativeFloridaGirl** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:20 pm

Scorpion wrote:If it gets stronger today quickly then I wouldnt rule out a Frances scenario.

In that case, somebody stop the ride, I want off!

~Beth~

TS Zack · #14 Postby **TS Zack** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:23 pm

Looks to me it is continuing on a Westward Course but you are seeing it wrapping around. Thats what gives the illusion of a more Northerly Motion.

Cycloneye Watch This One!

jrod · #15 Postby **jrod** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:28 pm

I think the core has certainly taken a jog a little north. I suppose the overall blob is still going toward the west. I do think things are looking better for this system, warmer SSTs, light shear ahead...

Thunder44 · #16 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:30 pm

Latest Dvorak numbers:

11/1745 UTC 10.7N 45.3W T2.5/2.5 05

She's a TS with 40mph winds, according to this.

#17 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:33 pm

Well, that's 35kts estimate.

Swimdude · #18 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:35 pm

dhweather wrote:Looks like the TD still has some vertical alignment issues.

Right; that's why it's a TD.

dwg71 · #19 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:36 pm

11AM position 10.3N 44.7W
Dvorak 12:45 10.7N 45.3W

That shows .4N and .6W or a 305 heading (approx)

jrod · #20 Postby **jrod** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:38 pm

How are the Dvorak estimates derived?

TD 5 becoming better organized

TD 5 becoming better organized

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