Joe B on future Emily and Franklin

[KatDaddy]

His video was quite short today.

He believes Emily will become a GOM threat.....possible W GOM. He expects Emily to in the NW Caribbean approaching the Yucatan next Sunday.

He believes Franklin will take a more N route and is very concerned about the strength of the Bermuda High. Could be a FLA or SE US threat from Franklin.

His quote "Its 1933 all over again"

[Duffy]

wohoooooooooo
as i always say...."Bring em on Baby" lol
looks like we're going to be losing ALOT of sleep, the next few weeks lol

[DESTRUCTION5]

JB is still Trying to Get Dennis to come back and Strike LA...The man is so full of himself its not even funny...

[Portastorm]

His video was quite short today.

He believes Emily will become a GOM threat.....possible W GOM. He expects Emily to in the NW Caribbean approaching the Yucatan next Sunday.

He believes Franklin will take a more N route and is very concerned about the strength of the Bermuda High. Could be a FLA or SE US threat from Franklin.

His quote "Its 1933 all over again"

Also important to note from his column that he:

1) acknowledged that TPC blew him out of the water re: Dennis, and that his landfall location ideas were flat out wrong.

2) gave big-time kudos to TPC and their forecasters for doing such a good job on Dennis landfall ideas.

[jlauderdal]

JB is still Trying to Get Dennis to come back and Strike LA...The man is so full of himself its not even funny...

NHC had their track problems a few years ago but it seems like last season and now this one they have been very good. I will be listening to NHC until further notice.

[x-y-no]

Well, I take issue with his naming these systems in advance of data, especially "Franklin". I expect they both will develop, but nonetheless ...

I also take exception to his little "when they get around to naming it" jab - not that it's so offensive in isolation, but taken in the context of his ongoing campaign to belittle the NHC it's annoying. This pattern of scoffing and little digs has turned my attitude to JB from one of admiration and liking to one of anger and disgust. The NHC has constraints he doesn't have - and whatever their private opinion of the state of a system may be, they cannot take official action with regard to a system in advance of real data supporting that action.

This whole trend on his part is sad, really, because he's a sharp meteorologist and quite good at what he does. But apparently either something deep in his personality or perhaps marketing considerations have prompted him to engage in the sometimes subtle, sometimes blatant but always despicable campaign.


That said, I have no issues with the analysis he gives in the video. Makes good sense to me.

Jan

[x-y-no]

Also important to note from his column that he:

1) acknowledged that TPC blew him out of the water re: Dennis, and that his landfall location ideas were flat out wrong.

2) gave big-time kudos to TPC and their forecasters for doing such a good job on Dennis landfall ideas.

Yeah, he'll admit the obvious once in a while. But then he goes right back to his eye-rolling and chuckles and little digs, and occasionally on full-blown childish rants.

What happened to his resolve never to mention NHC again and not even to use storm names? I would have sworn that was just a couple of weeks ago. But here he is, naming a wave just off Africa "Franklin" already, and making little jabs about "when [NHC] gets around to naming" Emily-to-be.

Jan

[JPmia]

amen to that...couldn't agree more....i don't get the excitement about him...i can find the same information somewhere else without the drama he gives out!

[cajungal]

Joe is forever forecasting a strike on LA/TX for every single storm. He kept defying the NHC and kept insisting Dennis would hit near the mouth of the MS river. We all know we was wrong, right?

[vbhoutex]

Well, I take issue with his naming these systems in advance of data, especially "Franklin". I expect they both will develop, but nonetheless ...

I also take exception to his little "when they get around to naming it" jab - not that it's so offensive in isolation, but taken in the context of his ongoing campaign to belittle the NHC it's annoying. This pattern of scoffing and little digs has turned my attitude to JB from one of admiration and liking to one of anger and disgust. The NHC has constraints he doesn't have - and whatever their private opinion of the state of a system may be, they cannot take official action with regard to a system in advance of real data supporting that action.

This whole trend on his part is sad, really, because he's a sharp meteorologist and quite good at what he does. But apparently either something deep in his personality or perhaps marketing considerations have prompted him to engage in the sometimes subtle, sometimes blatant but always despicable campaign.


That said, I have no issues with the analysis he gives in the video. Makes good sense to me.

Jan

I think this(the bolded part) is what is going on with Joe B. The Joe B I know from emails is not the one I am hearing about.

[frankthetank]

He had one of those Florida storms last year going to Texas...i'm still waiting on that one.

JB/Accucrap--i hope they keep up these horrible forecasts

JB still have that BMW or did he upgrade yet?

[perk]

Cajungal you're right JB do often forecast a Tx/La strike,but i don't think he does it to irritate the NHC.What scares me is that one day he's gonna be right.

[Duffy]

JOe B Rules!!!!!!
Jan, you got serious issues with him, relax

[dhweather]

Also important to note from his column that he:

1) acknowledged that TPC blew him out of the water re: Dennis, and that his landfall location ideas were flat out wrong.

2) gave big-time kudos to TPC and their forecasters for doing such a good job on Dennis landfall ideas.

Yeah, he'll admit the obvious once in a while. But then he goes right back to his eye-rolling and chuckles and little digs, and occasionally on full-blown childish rants.

What happened to his resolve never to mention NHC again and not even to use storm names? I would have sworn that was just a couple of weeks ago. But here he is, naming a wave just off Africa "Franklin" already, and making little jabs about "when [NHC] gets around to naming" Emily-to-be.

Jan

He's a smart guy, too bad his arrogant and brash, and quite frankly ,rude.
I don't watch him for those reasons.

What's the "payback" for him completely mising the NOLA landfall for Dennis? NOTHING.

Had the NHC done what he did, there would be congressional hearings
scheduled and reads rolling.

The NHC does exceptional work with tropical systems.


You want a simple demonstration on how tricky the forecasting is?

Fill your bathtub up, and place 4-5 ping-pong balls in the tub.
Move your hand around in the water and try to tell in advance where the
balls will end up.

That's a grossly simplified example of what the NHC has to work with for
fluid dynamics. You have to add in the atmosphere, ocean conditions, and other issues to begin trying to forecast these things. A tremendous amount of knowledge and skill is required.

[GalvestonDuck]

Fill your bathtub up, and place 4-5 ping-pong balls in the tub.
Move your hand around in the water and try to tell in advance where the
balls will end up.

That's a grossly simplified example of what the NHC has to work with for
fluid dynamics. You have to add in the atmosphere, ocean conditions, and other issues to begin trying to forecast these things. A tremendous amount of knowledge and skill is required.

Darn, I thought I had a good preparedness idea now. Looks like it probably wouldn't work.

[MWatkins]

Also important to note from his column that he:

1) acknowledged that TPC blew him out of the water re: Dennis, and that his landfall location ideas were flat out wrong.

2) gave big-time kudos to TPC and their forecasters for doing such a good job on Dennis landfall ideas.

Yeah, he'll admit the obvious once in a while. But then he goes right back to his eye-rolling and chuckles and little digs, and occasionally on full-blown childish rants.

What happened to his resolve never to mention NHC again and not even to use storm names? I would have sworn that was just a couple of weeks ago. But here he is, naming a wave just off Africa "Franklin" already, and making little jabs about "when [NHC] gets around to naming" Emily-to-be.

Jan

He's a smart guy, too bad his arrogant and brash, and quite frankly ,rude.
I don't watch him for those reasons.

What's the "payback" for him completely mising the NOLA landfall for Dennis? NOTHING.

Had the NHC done what he did, there would be congressional hearings
scheduled and reads rolling.

The NHC does exceptional work with tropical systems.


You want a simple demonstration on how tricky the forecasting is?

Fill your bathtub up, and place 4-5 ping-pong balls in the tub.
Move your hand around in the water and try to tell in advance where the
balls will end up.

That's a grossly simplified example of what the NHC has to work with for
fluid dynamics. You have to add in the atmosphere, ocean conditions, and other issues to begin trying to forecast these things. A tremendous amount of knowledge and skill is required.

What models to use for such forecasting?

The PPFDL? (pingpong Fluid Dynamics Lab)
PAMD (Pingpong Advection Model, Deeptub)
PAMM (Pingpong Advection Model, Mediumtub)
The PFS?

Good points on the difficulties of fluid dynamics. Forecasting the atmosphere, as one scientist said (was it Lorentz...can't remember now) is the ultimate non-linier problem to solve.

Tropical forecasting is the hardest subset of atmospheric forecasting IMHO...which is probably why I am so interested in the field...

MW

[x-y-no]

JOe B Rules!!!!!!
Jan, you got serious issues with him, relax

I'll relax when he stops playing his little part in his employer's smear campaign against NOAA related to their effort at legalized theft on a monumental scale.

Jan

[Steve]

>>What's the "payback" for him completely mising the NOLA landfall for Dennis? NOTHING.

Spell it slowly now, c-r-e-d-i-b-i-l-i-t-y .

Steve

[MWatkins]

JOe B Rules!!!!!!
Jan, you got serious issues with him, relax

I'll relax when he stops playing his little part in his employer's smear campaign against NOAA related to their effort at legalized theft on a monumental scale.

Jan

Interesting...the 11AM discussion somewhat deals...perhaps...with one of these digs you mention.

I PREFER TO FOLLOW THE BROADER SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME. THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB OF T2.0...ARE GOOD REASONS NOT TO UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM.

MW

[Duffy]

once it gets out of that sheer enviroment, it should start devoloping a little faster.....i say Tropical Storm Emily within a day or two and TS Franklin by next week