8am edt T# still at 2.0 for TD 5

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wxwatcher91
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8am edt T# still at 2.0 for TD 5

#1 Postby wxwatcher91 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:30 am

11/1145 UTC 10.2N 44.0W T2.0/2.0 05
Last edited by wxwatcher91 on Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:31 am

It may not be upgraded than at 11am. :(
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:35 am

Thunder44 wrote:It may not be upgraded than at 11am. :(


Yes they can wait to see more visibles to see how the organization continues.
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#4 Postby wxwatcher91 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:35 am

yeah... but you never know...

the thing is TD5 needs a pressure drop before much more can happen.
5am advisory TD5 was still at 1010mb which supports a gust of wind to 5mph (sarcastically)
my guess is that TD5 still has an outside chance of 40mph in the 11am advisory but more likely is 35mph and pressure down to 1000 to 1005mb
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Derek Ortt

#5 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:36 am

thats only 1 of 3 estimates

if TAFB has a T 2.5, its getting the upgrade
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#6 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:38 am

According to their hurricane models they don't plan to upgrade right now.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (AL052005) ON 20050711 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050711 1200 050712 0000 050712 1200 050713 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.2N 44.2W 10.2N 46.8W 10.0N 49.4W 9.9N 52.3W
BAMM 10.2N 44.2W 10.4N 46.7W 10.6N 49.3W 10.9N 52.1W
A98E 10.2N 44.2W 10.0N 46.4W 10.4N 48.9W 11.1N 51.6W
LBAR 10.2N 44.2W 10.2N 46.7W 10.3N 49.6W 10.7N 52.6W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 53KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050713 1200 050714 1200 050715 1200 050716 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.9N 55.3W 10.7N 62.0W 12.5N 68.6W 14.3N 74.9W
BAMM 11.2N 55.0W 12.6N 61.2W 14.8N 67.6W 16.7N 73.6W
A98E 11.6N 54.2W 13.5N 59.7W 15.2N 64.9W 16.9N 69.9W
LBAR 10.8N 56.0W 11.5N 62.6W 13.3N 68.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 60KTS 70KTS 75KTS 77KTS
DSHP 60KTS 70KTS 75KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.2N LONCUR = 44.2W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 42.3W DIRM12 = 261DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 40.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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