Advisorys
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cycloneye
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Advisorys
This is the sunday advisory thread starting with the 8 AM CDT Advisory.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:03 pm, edited 23 times in total.
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cycloneye
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ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005
AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 140 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005
AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 140 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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feederband
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pcolaguy
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feederband
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wxwatcher91
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cycloneye
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUES TOWARD NORTHERN
GULF COAST...
...AT 8 AM CDT...1300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER SOUTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI.
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
16 MPH...ALTHOUGH A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATER TODAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS
IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SATELLITE
AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION
TREND MAY BE ENDING. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
DENNIS MAY OCCUR AS FAR AS 150 TO 175 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK
OF THE HURRICANE.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE ESTIMATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET IS
LIKELY ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO NEAR
15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL ON THE GULF
COAST.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
REPEATING THE 8 AM CDT POSITION...28.7 N... 86.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUES TOWARD NORTHERN
GULF COAST...
...AT 8 AM CDT...1300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER SOUTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI.
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
16 MPH...ALTHOUGH A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATER TODAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS
IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SATELLITE
AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION
TREND MAY BE ENDING. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES FROM THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
DENNIS MAY OCCUR AS FAR AS 150 TO 175 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK
OF THE HURRICANE.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE ESTIMATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET IS
LIKELY ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO NEAR
15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL ON THE GULF
COAST.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
REPEATING THE 8 AM CDT POSITION...28.7 N... 86.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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wxwatcher91
- Category 5
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wxwatcher91 wrote:are they suggesting another intensification trend may start up again???
I think they are saying that the hurricane may of peaked. The rapid intensification phase seems to be ending.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Air Force Met
- Military Met
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Stratusxpeye
- Category 2
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Wacahootaman
- Tropical Storm
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- Location: North Florida
Air Force Met wrote:wxwatcher91 wrote:are they suggesting another intensification trend may start up again???
I don't think so. It's peaked right now. The CDO structure is a little ragged and the eye is cooling some. I believe it's peaked. It will probably weaken some before landfall...but probably not much.
Agreed - he's really starting to feel some dry air from the SW - the ULL is feeding him that stuff and he's not going to like it much.
BUT, I'd still prepare for a cat4 landfall.
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Air Force Met wrote:wxwatcher91 wrote:are they suggesting another intensification trend may start up again???
I don't think so. It's peaked right now. The CDO structure is a little ragged and the eye is cooling some. I believe it's peaked. It will probably weaken some before landfall...but probably not much.
Latest images showing the CDO becoming more circular again.
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