WOBBLE WATCH THREAD--Wobbles are now becoming important

[rockyman]

This is just an idea...since the wobbles are becoming increasingly important, I wonder if this doesn't deserve a separate thread...the wobble last minute during Ivan meant the difference between my house remaining upright or floating around in the Mississippi eye.

OK here goes,

As of 545am, I've seen a few frames almost due north...is there ANYTHING in the environment that could turn the system due north? On this track, the system would come in around Navarre.

[ericinmia]

From 5:30-7:12 its been averaging 342 degrees... which is north of NNW.

It appears this is not a wobble but a persistant track i have measured throughout that time period.... although it got ever so slightly more northward the past hour.
-Eric

[Nimbus]

This stair stepping behavior seems to happen more when there is a change in strength of the system or the steering ridge.

My take on the NNW jogs is that the Coriolis effect is tending to cause Dennis to recurve poleward.

The NAM model has been forecasting a stronger steering ridge which tends to steer the storm more WNW.

For what its worth the WNW jogs have been longer than the NNW jogs.

The NHC track looks like a good compromise but you might have to wait till the last couple hours before landfall to know exactly where the eyewall is going to strike.

We are due for a WNW jog now if the NHC track is correct.