12z UKMET...

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Steve
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12z UKMET...

#1 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 07, 2005 12:31 pm

Might end up being the western outlier. It still has a St. Mary Parish/Iberia Parish solution for whatever reason. That's pretty much South Central LA.

I haven't seen the 12z European yet to see if it continued with its trend or if it moved further eastward yet.

Steve
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#2 Postby Innotech » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:37 pm

it better be, because Lafayette is just northwest of Iberia Parish.
I really highly doubt at htis point that it is coming htis way. not so sure about excluding N.O. completely though.
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#3 Postby LAwxrgal » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:44 pm

UKMET is the western outlier.
FWIW, a poster in another post said the Euro showed a Mobile landfall.
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Re: 12z UKMET...

#4 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:45 pm

Steve wrote:Might end up being the western outlier. It still has a St. Mary Parish/Iberia Parish solution for whatever reason. That's pretty much South Central LA.

I haven't seen the 12z European yet to see if it continued with its trend or if it moved further eastward yet.

Steve


In my opinion this is amazing. What is it (UKMET)seeing that the other models are missing or what is it missing that the other models aren't. I hope no one lets down their guard down just yet in LA.MS. or AL despite what the model consensus is currently showing.
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#5 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:45 pm

It was the ECMWF that is near Mobile, the UKMET is still SC LA
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#6 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:45 pm

hey, the ukmet could be right....they are clearly thinking the ridge will hold it west...
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Re: 12z UKMET...

#7 Postby cajungal » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:58 pm

Steve wrote:Might end up being the western outlier. It still has a St. Mary Parish/Iberia Parish solution for whatever reason. That's pretty much South Central LA.

I haven't seen the 12z European yet to see if it continued with its trend or if it moved further eastward yet.

Steve
I just clicked on it. It got it going straight up Terrebonne Bay. It has been pretty consistent. That is the model JB is going by. He still thinks Dennis will come just to the west of New Orleans like Betsy.
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#8 Postby Cape Verde » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:04 pm

Look at the http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=40103 12Z Mean Ensemble
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#9 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:07 pm

This has also been noted here...(GFS ensemble)
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=66659
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