Newest GFS Guidance...Not Good for Keys

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:50 am

Looking at the GFS guidance through 30 hours...the trough over the SE Gulf if not progodded to lift out as quickly as previously believed in the model:

NEW:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030s.gif

vs the same verify time in the 00Z guidance

OLD:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042s.gif

Notice the trough hanging all the way back into SE LA whereas it completely lifted out in the old guidance. This suggests an elevated concern for the FL keys and even a much closer pass to SW Florida in 30 to 42 hours.

MW

Scorpion · #2 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:50 am

Things starting to get hairy, especially since its only 48 hours out. Might get more than I bargained for here.

#3 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:51 am

If you believe this model...this does not mean the actual track will materialize. This is just one tool in looking at the steering flow. Please follow offical guidance from the NHC...

More models later...

MW

chris_fit · #4 Postby **chris_fit** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:52 am

wxcrazytwo · #5 Postby **wxcrazytwo** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:55 am

MWatkins wrote:If you believe this model...this does not mean the actual track will materialize. This is just one tool in looking at the steering flow. Please follow offical guidance from the NHC...

More models later...

MW

I still think the track will shift slightly right and NW. If hit hits the keys, TAMPA is in big trouble...

#6 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:56 am

That's right, GFS, I'll get ya!

:yayaya:

#7 Postby **Rebelstorm** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:00 am

Mike, being a rookie at this but listening to all the pros on here, I noticed in the water vapor loop it appears that the high looks to be filling back in slowly. I don't know if you can read anything into that but....

#8 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:01 am

wxcrazytwo wrote:
MWatkins wrote:If you believe this model...this does not mean the actual track will materialize. This is just one tool in looking at the steering flow. Please follow offical guidance from the NHC...

More models later...

MW

I still think the track will shift slightly right and NW. If hit hits the keys, TAMPA is in big trouble...

I just don't see Dennis coming close to Tampa, Fl but crazier things have happened so you never know.

#9 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:02 am

MW, now that you have seen this, and can see some of the other models coming out, what is your take on what we might expect here on the Pinellas Beaches? Should I start to really worry or what? -9th floor condo on the beach facing towards the gulf here....what kind of winds am I looking at possibly getting? Should I be boarding up?

EarthStormFire · #10 Postby **EarthStormFire** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:05 am

We want this model, this is a good model, it would have to go through the mountains of cuba for this model, that would destroy the storm, making this a weak cat 1 or TS by the time it hits florida.

#11 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:11 am

It is simply too early to tell.

Timing is EVERYTHING for this system.

The ridge will build back in, but does that happen before, during, or after
Dennis gets in the GOM?

As I said earlier, everyone from Louisiana eastward should be preparing for this hurricane. Texans should be paying careful attention to the NHC forecasts.

jkt21787 · #12 Postby **jkt21787** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:11 am

EarthStormFire wrote:We want this model, this is a good model, it would have to go through the mountains of cuba for this model, that would destroy the storm, making this a weak cat 1 or TS by the time it hits florida.

Cuba is not THAT mountainous, it won't weaken that much unless it sits over the mountains for a long period of time. However, it does substantially redue the threat of a major moving in.

x-y-no · #13 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:21 am

Maybe yesterday's Canadian wasn't so crazy after all ... :eek:

The lower Keys won't have a long time to evacuate ... hope this is too far right.

Jan

Rainband · #14 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:24 am

x-y-no wrote:Maybe yesterday's Canadian wasn't so crazy after all ...

The lower Keys won't have a long time to evacuate ... hope this is too far right.

Jan

evacuation was just issued

#15 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:24 am

x-y-no wrote:Maybe yesterday's Canadian wasn't so crazy after all ...

That's what I was thinking. I made the prediction on the first day of the prediction thread of through the Keys, I'd rather have some crow I think! LOL

x-y-no wrote:The lower Keys won't have a long time to evacuate ... hope this is too far right.

Jan

At least they're starting with the visitor stuff now. I think a lot of the Keys folks will stay put, they usually do. My step-brother in Islamorada rarely leaves.

Nimbus · #16 Postby **Nimbus** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 11:59 am

Just my luck, I live west of Tampa out by the water and bought frozen foods this morning.
I will never trust the water vapor loop again if we lose power.

Rainband · #17 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 12:00 pm

Nimbus wrote:Just my luck, I live west of Tampa out by the water and bought frozen foods this morning.
I will never trust the water vapor loop again if we lose power.

I keep my freezer low this time of year.

Newest GFS Guidance...Not Good for Keys

Newest GFS Guidance...Not Good for Keys

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