0600z Dennis model suite question....

[Stormtrack03]

The models have shifted somewhat back to the right of the NHC track, does this mean that Dennis will be more infuenced by the weakening of the ridge? The current NW jog it has taken further puzzles me.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif

[mobilebay]

when the GFS shifts East so does the nhc model suite, including the GFDL. Wait for the 12Z run of the GFS before buying this. IMHO

[weatherwindow]

i don't think the nw motion is significant....unless it persists(duh). i have noticed that, at least in the case of ivan and charley, that there appear to be the potential for some track adjustments in the vicinity of jamaica. the above storms did a distinct jog on their approach. perhaps we are seeing something of the same to the north of jamaica this time. that said, i am sure that any persistence of that nw motion will be initialized in the models next run. given that situation, the forecast track would necessarily shift a bit to the right(north and east)....................rich

[tampastorm]

Is it correct in saying , that even a jog at this point can change the models, also the odds obviously going up that here on the west coast of FL of more of an effect.

[chris_fit]

And they keep shifting EAST!!! Look how much closer to West coast FL...

When's the new UKMET coming out?

This is so making me nervous, family in Sarasota and Venice

[tampastorm]

The West coast of FL would not need a direct hit to cause huge damage. If this rides up anywhere near the FL west coast, storm surge will be devastating.

[WeatherEmperor]

I hate model trends especially if, keyword if, a trend is gonna develop that takes it further and further east towards FL.

<RICKY>

[weatherwindow]

well, it wouldnt necessarily change the heading of the forecast track but it would initialize the model run further north. all things being equal, if the forecast lheading remained constant, it would shift the landfall north and east by the mileage it had deviated from its forecast point during its jog....hope that explanation makes sense ...............rich

[tampastorm]

makes perferct sense, and actually quite simple,lol

[mobilebay]

Everyone of those models except the UKMEt are run off the GFS, and initial conditons from 7PM last night. Wait until the 12Z run.