Will Florida get it's 5th hurricane in a year..?

[Josephine96]

Just wondering everybody's opinion after this model shifting business and actually hearing in an earlier thread that 1 of my own local mets saying models keep shifting east or what not..

I personally think the possibility is there.. Dennis is at a relatively low latitude, he may decelerate a little bit.. and as he develops and approaches the US from the SE.. he really has 2 choices.. Florida or the Gulf of Mexico and then somewhere else..

and NO I am not wishing it this way.. but if you wanna believe otherwise ok lol

[Normandy]

Maybe later, but I dont think Dennis will hit Florida.

[Scorpion]

Probably the Panhandle, but the peninsula will have to wait.

[wx247]

Most of the models I have seen are shifting west, not east. Also... I keep saying this but it is worth repeating... Dennis is moving WEST right now... as is evident on several sources. The extrap is pretty much due NW. These models are going to have to be off... at least in the near term or else I give up and quit.

[ericinmia]

If his forward motion slows... that will be the telling sign.

Judging from looking at these models snyoptic patterns. I think they are having a hard time figuring out what impact Cindy would have on the ridge... which causes huge effects on what it would do with Dennis.

Look at Cindy now, she is stronger and east of where predicted before.

Just a little food for thought.
-Eric

[gatorcane]

Look at Cindy now, she is stronger and east of where predicted before.

Cindy could easily weaken the ridge enough to push Dennis more to the right....it's a DEFINITE possibililty....

Also remember the models have been left-biased so far this year...Cindy was originally supposed to hit Texas...

[Normandy]

Also remember the models have been left-biased so far this year...Cindy was originally supposed to hit Texas

.....Did you miss the reformation of the center of Cindy? I thought wed all been through this....Cindy didnt hit Texas because its center reformed about 100 miles due north of where the models initialized it.

[gatorcane]

.....Did you miss the reformation of the center of Cindy? I thought wed all been through this....Cindy didnt hit Texas because its center reformed about 100 miles due north of where the models initialized it.

The models are not good in my opinion more than 3+ days...I think by Thurs/Fri we will know pretty certain where Dennis is going.

[Wacahootaman]

I knowed they shudda never gone to the moon!

Weather has not been the same since!

[Normandy]

The models are not good in my opinion more than 3+ days...I think by Thurs/Fri we will know pretty certain where Dennis is going.

I agree....point is that Cindy's track error was not the model's fault.

[corpusbreeze]

I dont know. It looks like this season has shifted to north central GOM.

[Josephine96]

Maybe it has Corpus.. but remember.. it's only July..

[Windtalker]

We are now seeing a shift to the right somewhat from the last model maps. This will go back & forth until we get a real fix on the position. We are also seeing a slow down of 4mph since the last advisory and still seeing a wnw movement. I for one am not counting Dennis out of Florida. Home Depot here in Davie was busier than normal today. The buzz here in SE FL is to prepare now and hope for the best. No one here on the local stations are saying Dennis will not hit S Florida. They all say it's to early to tell. My opinion.....It's going to be closer than what they are saying....key largo. The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[rsdoug1981]

Look at Cindy now, she is stronger and east of where predicted before.

Cindy could easily weaken the ridge enough to push Dennis more to the right....it's a DEFINITE possibililty....

Also remember the models have been left-biased so far this year...Cindy was originally supposed to hit Texas...

I would think that Dennis' slowing and wnw motion would give Cindy's weakness time to move on before Dennis arrives on the scene.

[sprink52]

I think we Floridians and people from 'Bama need to officialy declare our two states "off limits " for hurricanes this year. We got Frances and Jean down here in Palm Beach and our nephew got Ivan in Gulf Shores. Enough already!

[Josephine96]

Talking about busy stores..

as my stores' weather guru.. Fellow employees have asked me the rest of this week.. to make an announcement at the morning meetings on Weds. Thurs. and Fri. to "get your supplies now.. because if Dennis {or any storm} should come this way and you wait till the last second.. you won't find what you need/want"}

Makes common sense lol

[Canelaw99]

We are now seeing a shift to the right somewhat from the last model maps. This will go back & forth until we get a real fix on the position. We are also seeing a slow down of 4mph since the last advisory and still seeing a wnw movement. I for one am not counting Dennis out of Florida. Home Depot here in Davie was busier than normal today. The buzz here in SE FL is to prepare now and hope for the best. No one here on the local stations are saying Dennis will not hit S Florida. They all say it's to early to tell. My opinion.....It's going to be closer than what they are saying....key largo. The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I, for one, agree with ya, and I"m not wishing for it. I don't disagree that there's the potential for a Gulf threat with Dennis, but I think the set-up is there for Dennis to be a double striker - 1st on southern FL (Miami-Dade, Keys), then across, into the Gulf, and then again LA/AL/MS, etc....The Mets down here are doing great at informing, but not alarming people so far, but as has been said, all people from FL (Both coasts) to Mexico need to keep their eyes open.

[sprink52]

Canelaw99 wrote

I, for one, agree with ya, and I"m not wishing for it. I don't disagree that there's the potential for a Gulf threat with Dennis, but I think the set-up is there for Dennis to be a double striker - 1st on southern FL (Miami-Dade, Keys), then across, into the Gulf, and then again LA/AL/MS, etc....The Mets down here are doing great at informing, but not alarming people so far, but as has been said, all people from FL (Both coasts) to Mexico need to keep their eyes open.

I knew some body would throw this karma out there!!