TD 3 looking sick

[Huckster]

Despite continued convection in the bands to the north and east of the center, this thing is looking sick. It looks like it's ingested dry air. The convection near the center just can't quite get going. Also, the impressive outflow on the west is really being inhibited now. It looks like the shear factor is starting to kick in. I think the farther this thing goes west, the weaker it will remain.

[Stormcenter]

Despite continued convection in the bands to the north and east of the center, this thing is looking sick. It looks like it's ingested dry air. The convection near the center just can't quite get going. Also, the impressive outflow on the west is really being inhibited now. It looks like the shear factor is starting to kick in. I think the farther this thing goes west, the weaker it will remain.

I wouldn't say that so soon.

[Rainband]

It's a sheared mess

[Wnghs2007]

Yep but they just found a 42 knt flight level wind, refer to the Recon Reports thread to find further information.

[Rainband]

Yep but they just found a 42 knt flight level wind, refer to the Recon Reports thread to find further information.

extrapolate that to the surface.

[Wnghs2007]

Yep but they just found a 42 knt flight level wind, refer to the Recon Reports thread to find further information.

extrapolate that to the surface.

Using 10 or 15 percent reduction?

42 knts - 4.2 knts aka 10% = 37.8 knts

42 knts - 6.3 knts aka 15% = 35.7 knts

[Rainband]

Doesn't matter what you use. Flight level winds are always higher. One observation doesn't matter. It looks like a sheared shrimp.

[mobilebay]

Doesn't matter what you use. Flight level winds are always higher. One observation doesn't matter. It looks like a sheared shrimp.

Maybe so but they just found a 49KT wind in the SE quad too.

[Wnghs2007]

Doesn't matter what you use. Flight level winds are always higher. One observation doesn't matter. It looks like a sheared shrimp.

Maybe so but they just found a 49KT wind in the SE quad too.

And the NE side is usually the strongest quad and it does have the strongest convection now so one could only guestimate that they will find even higher winds there.

[mobilebay]

Doesn't matter what you use. Flight level winds are always higher. One observation doesn't matter. It looks like a sheared shrimp.

Maybe so but they just found a 49KT wind in the SE quad too.

And the NE side is usually the strongest quad and it does have the strongest convection now so one could only guestimate that they will find even higher winds there.

Exactly. Like D. Ortt says you can't always go by IR Imagery!

[Wnghs2007]

Doesn't matter what you use. Flight level winds are always higher. One observation doesn't matter. It looks like a sheared shrimp.

Maybe so but they just found a 49KT wind in the SE quad too.

Oh and using a reduction ratio...

49 knts - 4.9 knts aka 10% = 44.1 knts

or

49 knts - 7.4 knts aka 15% = 41.6 knts

[mobilebay]

Doesn't matter what you use. Flight level winds are always higher. One observation doesn't matter. It looks like a sheared shrimp.

Maybe so but they just found a 49KT wind in the SE quad too.

Oh and using a reduction ratio...

49 knts - 4.9 knts aka 10% = 44.1 knts

or

49 knts - 7.4 knts aka 15% = 41.6 knts

They find a couple more of those in that NE quad you can bet we will have Cindy!

[Rainband]

Doesn't matter what you use. Flight level winds are always higher. One observation doesn't matter. It looks like a sheared shrimp.

Maybe so but they just found a 49KT wind in the SE quad too.

And the NE side is usually the strongest quad and it does have the strongest convection now so one could only guestimate that they will find even higher winds there.

Exactly. Like D. Ortt says you can't always go by IR Imagery!

I am going by the symmetry and agree it may have strong gusts but I agree with the post I read that said it looks to be embedded in the trof and elongated.

[mobilebay]

Doesn't matter what you use. Flight level winds are always higher. One observation doesn't matter. It looks like a sheared shrimp.

Maybe so but they just found a 49KT wind in the SE quad too.

And the NE side is usually the strongest quad and it does have the strongest convection now so one could only guestimate that they will find even higher winds there.

Exactly. Like D. Ortt says you can't always go by IR Imagery!

I am going by the symmetry and agree it may have strong gusts but I agree with the post I read that said it looks to be embedded in the trof and elongated.

O'h it is not well organized by any stretch of the imagination.

[clfenwi]

Note that flight level in this situation is 5000 feet, not the usual 1500 feet.

If I decoded the dropsonde observation correctly (see recon thread) there were 43 knot winds at 850 mb (roughly flight level) but only 17 knot winds at the surface.

[Rainband]

Doesn't matter what you use. Flight level winds are always higher. One observation doesn't matter. It looks like a sheared shrimp.

Maybe so but they just found a 49KT wind in the SE quad too.

And the NE side is usually the strongest quad and it does have the strongest convection now so one could only guestimate that they will find even higher winds there.

Exactly. Like D. Ortt says you can't always go by IR Imagery!

I am going by the symmetry and agree it may have strong gusts but I agree with the post I read that said it looks to be embedded in the trof and elongated.

O'h it is not well organized by any stretch of the imagination.

It is still not a typical TS.