Tonight's UKMET

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rsdoug1981
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Tonight's UKMET

#1 Postby rsdoug1981 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:53 am

I wonder what it's seeing...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.7N 89.6W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 05.07.2005 23.7N 89.6W WEAK

12UTC 05.07.2005 25.3N 91.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 06.07.2005 27.1N 91.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 06.07.2005 28.7N 90.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.07.2005 30.1N 89.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.07.2005 31.7N 88.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 08.07.2005 33.0N 87.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.07.2005 34.4N 85.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.07.2005 37.0N 83.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.07.2005 39.0N 79.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.07.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL
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rockyman
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#2 Postby rockyman » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:55 am

Does anyone know what UKMET means by "weak" "moderate" and "strong"? :eek:

Just don't wanna wake up to an Opal-type situation...since I live a stone's throw from the Gulf :(
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rsdoug1981
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#3 Postby rsdoug1981 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:58 am

rockyman wrote:Does anyone know what UKMET means by "weak" "moderate" and "strong"? :eek:


I was wondering that as well. We know what weak is...it shows the system as weak right now (depression). Strong, and someone pleeeease correct me if I'm I'm wrong, would indicate a strong TS or low end hurricane. Maybe someone more knowledgeable can help us out.
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#4 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:01 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 00/19.html

Need someone to verify my color perception... it looks like it brings the pressure down to 1000 mb or slightly higher...
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rsdoug1981
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#5 Postby rsdoug1981 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:04 am

It looks like it sees the "rapid" intensification as a result of the very warm SSTs that start at about 28N.
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rsdoug1981
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#6 Postby rsdoug1981 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:05 am

From the looks of the infrared tonight, it's going to have to hurry to reach the "moderate" that is forecast for 12z. I'll be surprised if it gets there.
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#7 Postby P.K. » Tue Jul 05, 2005 4:41 am

rockyman wrote:Does anyone know what UKMET means by "weak" "moderate" and "strong"? :eek:

Just don't wanna wake up to an Opal-type situation...since I live a stone's throw from the Gulf :(


From the Met Office's website.

" The messages are primarily designed to give an indication of the Met Office global model's forecast track of tropical cyclones, which are known to exhibit some skill. Explicit forecasts of maximum wind speed are not given as the model (at its current resolution) cannot resolve the wind field with sufficient detail. However, a qualitative indication of forecast wind strength is given based on the model's relative vorticity field (at the 850hPa level)."

I'm trying to remember how high the levels go, above strong is intense but I'm not sure if that is the highest level.
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