MM5 blows up future 4 with a Fl hit

#1 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:19 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

#2 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:20 pm

Also takes TD3 to the NW towards TX/LA coast and stalls it.

x-y-no · #3 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:21 pm

Yeah, we were discussing that in an earlier thread. The FSU implementation of the MM5 has a huge problem with overintensifying systems. It spun Arlene up to a strong Cat-3 on several runs as well.

I'm not going to panic about this yet. 8-)

#4 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:21 pm

It also stalls TD3 just of the SW La. coast and has 2 other systems heading our way.

#5 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:21 pm

is any of this probable?

YouTube · #6 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:21 pm

#7 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:22 pm

That would be crazy if it happened. Not only have E this early, but also F!

x-y-no · #8 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:22 pm

Air Force Met wrote:Also takes TD3 to the NW towards TX/LA coast and stalls it.

Yeah, that stall is really weird. I'll eat my next plate of crow raw if that happens. :lol:

kevin · #9 Postby **kevin** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:23 pm

#10 Postby **feederband** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:24 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:That would be crazy if it happened. Not only have E this early, but also F!

F!!

Hurricaneman · #11 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:31 pm

The mm5 might be right, given the look already

x-y-no · #12 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:35 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The mm5 might be right, given the look already

The issue is not the MM5 in general, but the particular grid size and parameters used for the FSU run of the MM5.

I'm waiting to see what result Derek is getting with his runs. I trust his implementation a lot more.

Jan

#13 Postby **ericinmia** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 1:57 pm

Compare the forcasted synoptic pattern between the different globals.
In the Canadian, Euro, and GFS the high stays much stronger across the florida peninsula and into the southeast central states. This run of the MM5 erodes the high to bermuda allowing this phantom storm to jet up through cuba and hispanola and most likely skirt the coast of florida.

I find this solution improbable based on current and future featres in the atmosphere around florida. Most likely this will pass as a weak wave/depression south of florida either through the straits or over/under cuba, and then re-emmerge into the gulf/yucatan area.

The posistion of the ridge is not going to allow what this model is attempting to do happen.
-Eric

MM5 blows up future 4 with a Fl hit

MM5 blows up future 4 with a Fl hit

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