20.6n-88.3w

[cycloneye]

04/1145 UTC 20.6N 88.3W OVERLAND 03 -- Atlantic Ocean


It is getting very close to the coast and get out into the GOM later today.

[Andy_L]

So when is this likely to reappear over water??

[cycloneye]

So when is this likely to reappear over water??

By afternon or evening depending on how the motion is.

[rockyman]

If this satellite estimate is really the center, then it's shown on IR as a "hook" in the clouds:

[skysummit]

I think that "hook" may be a little too far north of where the center is. Isn't it still supposed to be over land?

[wxman57]

I don't think it HAS a center this morning. If there is anything there, it could well be north of the Yucatan around 22N/88W and racing NNE. You won't be able to find it on IR imagery, and visible imagery is just starting to come in. Surfac obs over Yucatan indicate a wave axis.

[rockyman]

The hook is over the north central Yucatan.

By the way...here was the forecasted position for 1pm this afternoon (based on 4am adv):

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N 89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

If the satellite estimate is correct, 20.6/88.3, then the system is about 1 full degree east of where it was supposed to be at this latitude....putting it on the easten edge of the "cone" ...not that this trend will continue, but the eastern edge of the cone goes into SE LA.

[Nimbus]

The surface pressure is lower in Merida than Cancun.

[skysummit]

It's going to be extremely interesting to see what happens over the next few hours. It may just fizzle, or it may pop its own fireworks.

[Javlin]

It looks to be moving NNW look at the the elongation of the system always denotes change of direction.I would suspect that the troph to the N is culprit possibily.

[drezee]

By definition, TD#3 must be upgraded.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Buoy 42056
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1116 37.7 kts S ( 178 deg true )

[skysummit]

By definition, TD#3 must be upgraded.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Buoy 42056
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1116 37.7 kts S ( 178 deg true )

But that buoy is pretty far to the ESE of where the "center" should be located. Would that justify?

[wxman57]

The hook is over the north central Yucatan.

That "hook" is just a piece of cirrus at 40-50 thousand feet up. It doesn't indicate anything at the surface.

[drezee]

By definition, TD#3 must be upgraded.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Buoy 42056
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1116 37.7 kts S ( 178 deg true )

But that buoy is pretty far to the ESE of where the "center" should be located. Would that justify?

Yes, the S wind indicates that it is under the influence of the TD.