My thoughts on TD#3 along with forecast....

[MGC]

Disclamer: The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TD#3 is currently located near the Mexican Yucatan coast. TD#3 has a small window to intensify prior to making landfall tonight along the Yucatan coast south of Cozumel. Latest infrared satellite images indicate increased convection near the center of TD#3 which indicates the depression has continued to become better organized. TD#3 (or TS Cindy if upgraded by the NHC at 10pm cst), should continue on a general WNW to NW track across the Yucatan and emerge in the extreme southern GOM late Monday afternoon or evening. High pressure over Texas and SW flow off the Texas coast will stear developing TS Cindy on a more northward course on Tuesday. Gradual intensification is forecast and Cindy could become a minimal hurricane prior to landfall. Landfall is forecast on the Louisiana coast between the Tx/La border and Grand Isle.....MGC

**edited by Lindaloo to include proper disclaimer**

[CYCLONE MIKE]

That seems to be the most common forecast, although it could bring it in my backyard. I am going on vacation Friday hopefully it will be over and done with. I think this storm could surprise some people in intensity (getting stronger) just like it did today in becoming a depression. Just seems too many factors are coming together that will allow for rapid intens. once it clears the yucatan especially if it moves slower.

[Jagno]

This is not good news for me. I am very near the Texas/LA border gulf coast (15 Miles) and still far from completing cleanup as the result of a small twister that hit my home last month. We have hundreds of 2x6 boards that use to be my deck that we collected from neighboring acreage and we just stacked it all in my yard and covered it with a tarp. All of my outdoor furniture, plants, fishpond and building materials are simply stacked on the new slab we recently poured. I can see now my Independance Day will comprise independently picking up all this crap and getting it secured.

[MGC]

Forecast is still valid this Monday afternoon. Never did think TD#3 was headed to Texas. With the center reforming so far north the chances of a hurricane have been reduced but there is still an outside chance......MGC

[Hurricaneman]

Theres always a chance

[HurryKane]

This is not good news for me. I am very near the Texas/LA border gulf coast (15 Miles) and still far from completing cleanup as the result of a small twister that hit my home last month. We have hundreds of 2x6 boards that use to be my deck that we collected from neighboring acreage and we just stacked it all in my yard and covered it with a tarp. All of my outdoor furniture, plants, fishpond and building materials are simply stacked on the new slab we recently poured. I can see now my Independance Day will comprise independently picking up all this crap and getting it secured.

I read this as "All of my outdoor furniture.....are simply stacked in the new slab we recently poured" and thought, well, guess you don't have to worry about them flying away.

I'm sorry to hear about the damage from the twister and wish you luck in completing that cleanup, and with any winds you get (if any) from TD3.

[Javlin]

MGC I am thinking our backyard myself the signature of the clouds says a more Northerly component to me at least.

[MGC]

It also appears the MLC, which should become the dominate circulation is moving faster than the 12 mph as stated on the last advisory. Once the new CC is better established I'm thinking the center will cross the coast Wednesday morning......MGC

[MGC]

Another dead on MGC forecast......MGC

[loon]

Nice work MGC....you always get close or dead on from all the tracks I've seen you post here and other places. I know you also usually do the smart thing and wait until 48-72 hours out when you can have a real clue as to the environment, so I await your thoughts on Dennis...I'm actually rooting for him to come to Tejas but, I'm sticking to keeping track of where he has been, and not where he is going for this storm, as I never get a prediction right, and I have not enough knowledge to predict anyway, so I won't pretend. =]

I'd just get blamed for -removed-, and they'd probably be right....

cheers,
loon