The Nam was the second model to hint at this system. That was over 3 days ago. The 06z forecasts it to develop into a tropical cyclone heading for central Texas later the 4th into the 5th. (48-66 hours)
It takes the system across the Yactan west-northwestward. Then turns it northwest afterwards. This model is taking this system a little more seriously.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 66_m.shtml
We look at the 850 millibar heights. Which shows this system developing to. A northwest track is shown.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 66_m.shtml
The nam shows that this system has a LLC at 00 hour. Then moving it westward into the Yactan. While it makes it a little stronger.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 18_m.shtml
At 24 hours it is remerging back into the Gulf of Mexico. Then it takes its time to get oreganized...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_m.shtml
500 millibars
48 hours the vort max is off texas...This vort max moves northward afterwards. Showing that the model wents to move it more northward then the other levels.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 66_m.shtml
200 millibars shows that it forms a strong upper level high over it...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 66_m.shtml
The Nam is showing interesting in our system.
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