Okay, I think this will become a named storm in the next 24-36 hours. However, I do not think it will go into the Yucatan. As a matter of fact, I think if it keeps consolidating on it's eastern side, Cuba may get more effects than the Yucatan. Nevertheless, I think it will track into the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico.
As it moves into the Gulf, I think it will be a minimal-moderate Tropical Storm. From there, a few things concern me.
#1. Upper Level Winds
The Upper Level Winds are very favorable and may become more favorable as time goes by. This can help venilate the system and allow the outflow to stream southwest into the Southern Hemisphere. This will also help the system and allow more vertical stacking. What is also concerning is the lack of extreme dry air, and any dry air that there is may be cancelled out by the somewhat large moist envelope the system has.
#2. Time of Year
While July is not the best month for tropical cyclones, August is. Hot, humid, tropical air helps these storms grow so tropical and favorable. Andrew, Charley, Bret '99 all had those mid-late August conditions. Now, since the Atlantic seems about a month ahead and all the heat in the Gulf and on the Gulf Coast...the time of year NOW may be more favorable than when cold fronts come down by Late September/October.
#3. Sea Surface Temperatures
South of the Texas/Louisiana border, the SST's are extremely warm, close or over 90 degrees in some areas. A week or so ago, I saw a bouy in the Southwestern Gulf of about 92 degrees. If this system does move towards Texas or SW Louisiana, it will be passing over PRIME water temperatures. If this system is tightening with an inner core while passing over those waters...well, I'll just say that if Opal exploded over an 85 degree eddy, I would hate to see what would happen if this thing passed over 92 degrees.
All in all, I think we will see a system out of this, and it may not be all that helpful, unless it stays weak, which I just can't see right now. I think it's Bret moving from the Yucatan to Texas/Louisiana. Only Bret ran out of water...this thing won't.
Comments Welcome
~Mike
Disclaimer=The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
My opinions on 96L
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Anonymous
My opinions on 96L
Last edited by Anonymous on Sat Jul 02, 2005 5:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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cycloneye
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Mike I added a disclaimer to your forecast. 
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Very interesting indeed if you are correct. I am waiting to see if it does make landfall on the yucatan. Hopefully that woukld disrupt or delay organization. Of course if there is a system left when it makes it to the GOM we will all need to watch carefully cause this thing could be intense.
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Anonymous
vbhoutex wrote:Mike you are expressing the same concerns I have with this system. I think it may pass over the Yucatan P, but I think all that will do is delay its' organization a little. Where is my darn crystal bal lwhen I need it?!
In MY OPINION, I think this is a Texas Hurricane. Yes, hurricane. I'll say a Claudette-type storm for now.
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vbhoutex
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~Floydbuster wrote:vbhoutex wrote:Mike you are expressing the same concerns I have with this system. I think it may pass over the Yucatan P, but I think all that will do is delay its' organization a little. Where is my darn crystal bal lwhen I need it?!
In MY OPINION, I think this is a Texas Hurricane. Yes, hurricane. I'll say a Claudette-type storm for now.
If it is to be a Texas storm, then IMO it will have to at least clip the Yucatan, but with conditions appearing to be ripe and possibly improving in the GOM I am not too sure that I am willing to go with TS intensity at landfall wherever that may be. I hope you and I are wrong, but at this point I am becoming concerned, I hope needlessly.
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senorpepr
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC, NWS, INSMET (Cuba), and SMN (Mexico) products.
Looking at hires satellite loops throughout the day, I'm more inclined to agree with David on this one. It appears to be moving just north of due west... maybe 280-290°. With the steering as it is right now, I feel that the likelihood of this moving through the Yucatan Straight is very low until a shift toward the north-northwest occurs, but time is running out. Regardless, I feel the Yucatan states will have to deal with this more than the Cuban provinces will.
As for tropical storm development, we'll have to see what recon finds tomorrow. However, I only expect minimal development over the next couple of days, thanks to the Yucatan. Now, I'm not saying a tropical storm/depression will not form... that depends on what recon finds tomorrow and how quickly it approaches land. What recon finds and any development that occurs prior to the Yucatan landfall, coupled with how long it tracks over the Yucatan, will govern how strong this will be in the end.
I'm currently looking at upper Mexican coast through the upper Texan coast for a final landfall. However, we'll get a better picture once recon heads out and the models get a few runs on an initialized center, rather than a "good guess" of a center.
Looking at hires satellite loops throughout the day, I'm more inclined to agree with David on this one. It appears to be moving just north of due west... maybe 280-290°. With the steering as it is right now, I feel that the likelihood of this moving through the Yucatan Straight is very low until a shift toward the north-northwest occurs, but time is running out. Regardless, I feel the Yucatan states will have to deal with this more than the Cuban provinces will.
As for tropical storm development, we'll have to see what recon finds tomorrow. However, I only expect minimal development over the next couple of days, thanks to the Yucatan. Now, I'm not saying a tropical storm/depression will not form... that depends on what recon finds tomorrow and how quickly it approaches land. What recon finds and any development that occurs prior to the Yucatan landfall, coupled with how long it tracks over the Yucatan, will govern how strong this will be in the end.
I'm currently looking at upper Mexican coast through the upper Texan coast for a final landfall. However, we'll get a better picture once recon heads out and the models get a few runs on an initialized center, rather than a "good guess" of a center.
Last edited by senorpepr on Sat Jul 02, 2005 9:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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