NHC 8 p.m. disc: Caribbean pattern similar to Bret....

[dixiebreeze]

So the situation is being closely monitored:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 29W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.
THE SAL UPPER AIR SOUNDING IS MOSTLY INCONCLUSIVE REGARDING WAVE
PASSAGE...BUT THE DAKAR TIMESECTION SUGGESTS A BACKWARD-LEANING
STRUCTURE GIVEN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS PRECEDED THE
MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION BY 18-24 HRS. A WEAK CIRCULATION IS NOTED
WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 29W...BUT WHAT IS MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE
WIDESPREAD DUST OUTBREAK MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST BEHIND THE
WAVE FROM 9N-26N.

LARGE AMPLITUDE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE TILTED ALONG
6N41W 14N44W 21N44W MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND AN
1800 UTC OBSERVATION FROM SHIP PBKY INDICATE THAT BROAD LOW PRES
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N43W WITH A MINIMUM PRES
OF 1010 MB. THE FORMATION OF THE LOW IS NOT YET INDICATIVE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS STILL QUITE
BROAD...THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER...AND A FEW OTHER VORT MAXES ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED
PRIMARILY WITHIN THE TRAILING ITCZ. THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS
INTERMITTENTLY PRESCRIBE TO A LOW ALONG THE WAVE AS IT NEARS THE
LESSER ANTILLES BUT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE LATCHES ON TO A
CONSOLIDATED SFC CIRCULATION. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SUN EVENING WITH
EPISODES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 4N-14N BETWEEN 36W-46W.

WEST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 8N81W 16N80W 22N77W MOVING W
20 KT. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE SRN COAST OF CUBA IS
IMPEDING THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE NRN PART OF THE WAVE AND
HAS LED TO A STRONG SW/NE TILT. AN UPPER RIDGE STRADDLES THE
WAVE AXIS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO S OF HAITI AND IS
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 76W-85W...INCLUDING OVER
JAMAICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND TO THE N AND EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN TO THE SE GULF BY
SUN AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ON
SAT SPREADING OVER W CUBA...THE SE GULF...AND YUCATAN ON
SUN...THEN INTO THE CNTRL GULF ON MON. THIS PATTERN IS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE PRECURSOR TO TROPICAL STORM BRET...SO THIS AREA
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[corpusbreeze]

And of course Bret stayed south and hit Mexico.

[skysummit]

I don't understand....."similar to Bret". As in movement and direction, or setup for intensity?

[Wpwxguy]

I think they were referring to the overall pattern or the features in place at that time and now. I don't believe they were indicating any future movement in comparison to Bret. It does give us a little hope for development though. We really need the rain here on the northern gulf coast. Regardless if anything comes of it or not, bring on the moisture.

[Portastorm]

With regard to Bret, I'm thinking about the rapid development that the storm underwent. Hmmm .... something for us to watch.

[Steve]

Good post wpwx. That's pretty much it - a wave interacting with some troughiness and convection; a little mid level turning; an upper low in the vicinity; another upper low/tutt that backed off SW into the pacific allowing the ridge to build; moving toward the Yucatan, etc.

As for rain in the Northern Gulf, I've got my 2nd t-storm of the day going off right now.

Steve

[dixiebreeze]

With regard to Bret, I'm thinking about the rapid development that the storm underwent. Hmmm .... something for us to watch.

I think you may be right about that.

[Nimbus]

They said this area will be in the central gulf on Monday so that should give some hints about steering.

There was a ridge over Texas that steered Bret inland in a hurry.

Florida is forecast to have a high pressure ridge building west out over the gulf.

A low over Texas will be retreating west mid week but if this thing gets whooshed up into Louisiana by tuesday it won't have much time to develop.

[corpusbreeze]

Sounds like the NHC needs to give out decoder rings so we can understand exactly what they are saying. I'm not good at reading between the lines.

[Cookiely]

Wouldn't the precursor to Tropical Storm Bret be Arlene? or is he talking about the birth of Bret and the initial track? I wish they would speak English

[dixiebreeze]

Wouldn't the precursor to Tropical Storm Bret be Arlene? or is he talking about the birth of Bret and the initial track? I wish they would speak English

I believe he was referring to the general atmospheric conditions that preceded the formation of Bret.

[skysummit]

I think they were referring to the overall pattern or the features in place at that time and now. I don't believe they were indicating any future movement in comparison to Bret. It does give us a little hope for development though. We really need the rain here on the northern gulf coast. Regardless if anything comes of it or not, bring on the moisture.

Where in SELA are you Wpwx? We had a few good downpours today down near Houma....especially early this morning.

[Ixolib]

Sounds like the NHC needs to give out decoder rings so we can understand exactly what they are saying. I'm not good at reading between the lines.

I'm not either, but thankfully, there are many on this board who are!!

[Steve]

>>I'm not either, but thankfully, there are many on this board who are!!

hahahahahaha

One of my secretaries held up her 2nd, 3rd and 4th fingers and told me that on Thursday. Heh.

Steve

[Hurricaneman]

I'm starting to think that this wave has a chance when it gets to the gulf

[dixiebreeze]

It looks this morning like it's on its way. A GOM system, no doubt.

[Wpwxguy]

Skysummit I am north of the Lake. We've had spotty showers over the last week, but not nearly enough. We are a watermelon producing area and things have really been bad this year. We'll take all the rain we can get up here.

Bill

[skysummit]

Skysummit I am north of the Lake. We've had spotty showers over the last week, but not nearly enough. We are a watermelon producing area and things have really been bad this year. We'll take all the rain we can get up here.

Bill

Yea, you're right. There hasn't been much rain up there. Yesterday, one little storm produced a warning near Independence, but that was about it. If you check my radar on my website, you'll see we're getting scattered showers again today down here. All it really does it make the heat index sky rocket after it's over though.