Today's Tropical weather outlook

[vbhoutex]

This is today's first official TWO(Tropical Weather OUtlook) from the NHC. As you can see there is nothing exciting going on officially. We will be using all the NHC products as well as generating our own this season.

ABNT20 KNHC 011142
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2003

CORRECTION TO LIST OF STORM NAMES

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TODAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF THE 2003 HURRICANE SEASON FOR THE ATLANTIC
BASIN. THE SEASON ENDS ON NOVEMBER 30TH.

ON AVERAGE...THERE ARE ABOUT 10 NAMED STORMS IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...OF WHICH SIX BECOME HURRICANES. THE LIST OF NAMES FOR THIS
SEASONS TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES AND SUGGESTED PRONUNCIATIONS
IS:

ANA
BILL
CLAUDETTE(CLAW-DET)
DANNY
ERIKA(ERR-REE-KA)
FABIAN(FAY-BEE-IN)
GRACE
HENRI(AHN-REE)
ISABEL(IS-A-BELL)
JUAN(WAN)
KATE
LARRY
MINDY
NICHOLAS (NIK-O-LAS)
ODETTE(O-DET)
PETER
ROSE
SAM
TERESA(TE-REE-SA)
VICTOR
WANDA

THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED FOUR TIMES PER DAY
DURING THE SEASON...530 AM...1130 AM...530 PM...AND 1030 PM EASTERN
LOCAL TIME. THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BRIEFLY DESCRIBE
AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SEPARATE PRODUCT...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
STATEMENT...MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE STRONG FORMATIVE
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NOT YET REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS. THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WONT41 AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIADSAAT.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR
ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES...INCLUDING A PUBLIC ADVISORY...
FORECAST/ADVISORY ...TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION...AND STRIKE
PROBABILITY TABLE. ALSO...A SPECIAL PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS MAY
BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME FOR UNEXPECTED SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OR FOR
ISSUING WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

ANOTHER PRODUCT IS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...WHICH IS A BRIEF
STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR
WARNINGS. IT MAY BE ISSUED ANY TIME...IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE A
SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT61 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT.

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

There is really nothing to talk about in the tropics at this time. No TC development is expected for at least the next 48 hours.
However some models are indicating we may have something to watch in the SW Carribean later this week. We will be checking the models to see if they hold onto the initial generation of this possible system. We must always watch for at least 48 hours before becoming at all concerned with the fact that models are showing a system developing.

WELCOME TO HURRICANE SEASON!!

[chadtm80]

First Two! WOOOO HOOOOOO

As always the outlook and discussion will be available here http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... lantic.htm

[southerngale]

Fasten your seat belts. Here we go...

[wx247]

Vb... I am looking forward to your discussions.

[cycloneye]

Yes David we have to check all the models not one or two too see if they are at consensus and agree on a system to form or it is only 1 model that shows it and the others not so we must be very careful and not jump rapidly to conclusions when the models begin to show something in an area.

[vbhoutex]

How's tis for a 5am update? JUst a little late huh? I apologize, but I slept in today.

There is really nothing to report Tropics wise today. AS Cycloneye has stated eslewhere at least a few models are continuing to carry the wave coming off of Africa on into the ATL and actually showing some possible development. This wave is exiting Africa at a very low latitude and I just, ATT, do not see development happening. If anything it is less organized than it was yesterday. However, we will continue to watch this area, especially if the models carry it for a third day. Definitely would be a very early CV system if something happens.
In the W GOM low pressure continues to dominate W of 90ºW and moisture is coming in across Mexico from the W. With the winds as they are in this area in the upper and mid levels it does not look like anything will develop anytime soon. This are does need to be watched later in the week when a trough moves into the Southern Plains and substantially increases the moisture feed from S to N. This could bring some badly needed rains to the TX/LA areas that are still suffering. Meanwhile, in the N GOM off the AL/FL coast a large area of showers and thunderstorms continues to move slowly ENE and NE and should give the FL/GA/AL areas a good soaking today and tomorrow morning.

There is no tropical development expected through Wednesday at this time.

[Rainband]

Thanks for the info!!!! Great job!!

[isobar]

Way early for CV. That would be one for the record books.

[wx247]

Thanks for the update Vb!

[Amanzi]

Thanks for the great discussion David

[vbhoutex]

Once again we have a few small features to watch in the tropics, but no TC development is expected through Thursday.

The BOC blob continues to "persist" and stay close to land or slightly inland as it moves E to ESE across the extreme S BOC towards the Yucatan peninsula. None of the models pick this area up and turn it into anything even though one does seem to pulse off a small UL disturbance across the GOM that probably won't even be noticed if it happens. Currently even though conditions are slightly favorable in the region no development is expected in this area. We will continue to monitor this area since there is a large area of low pressure covering much of Mexico and the W GOM.

Elsewhere some models do continue to carry the wave off of Africa and the GFS has become aggressive in developing it into a closed low by the time it reaches 40W longitude. If this verifies and manages to make it N of the South American coast we could see one of the earliest Cape Verde TC's in a long time. This will definitely be interesting to watch for a few days.

[wx247]

It certainly would be something to watch if it went north of S.America David! Good discussion.

[vbhoutex]

Latest in from NHC-ABNT20 KNHC 041511
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
INLAND NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.

OTHERWISE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Hummm they are begginning to mention it at the TWO but still no development as low is inland.

[Rainband]

All the low needs to do is go over the G.O.M. and we may be in business!!! :o

[ColdFront77]

If this low pressure system moves over the Gulf of Mexico we may indeed be in business. However, the feature was an upper level trough (low) as of 11:30am ET, Wednesday morning.