1995 vs 2005

[cycloneye]

# Name Dates Wind Pres Cat

1 Hurricane ALLISON 03-06 JUN 65 987 1
2 Tropical Storm BARRY 06-09 JUL 50 995 -
3 Tropical Storm CHANTAL 13-20 JUL 60 992 -
4 Tropical Storm DEAN 28-31 JUL 40 999 -
5 Hurricane ERIN 31 JUL-03 AUG 75 975 1
6 Tropical Depression #6 05-07 AUG 30 1001 -
7 Hurricane FELIX 08-17 AUG 115 950 4
8 Tropical Storm GABRIELLE 09-12 AUG 60 988 -
9 Hurricane HUMBERTO 22 AUG-01 SEP 90 970 2
10 Hurricane IRIS 22 AUG-04 SEP 95 965 2
11 Tropical Storm JERRY 22-25 AUG 35 1003 -
12 Tropical Storm KAREN 26 AUG-03 SEP 45 1000 -
13 Hurricane LUIS 28 AUG-11 SEP 120 936 4
14 Tropical Depression #14 11-13 SEP 30 1009 -
15 Hurricane MARILYN 12-22 SEP 100 949 3
16 Hurricane NOEL 27 SEP-07 OCT 65 987 1
17 Hurricane OPAL 27 SEP-05 OCT 130 916 4
18 Tropical Storm PABLO 05-07 OCT 50 998 -
19 Hurricane ROXANNE 07-20 OCT 100 958 3
20 Tropical Storm SEBASTIEN 20-24 OCT 35 1004 -
21 Hurricane TANYA 27 OCT-02 NOV 75 974 1
Individual Storm Details

There haved been comparisions between 1995 and 2005 in terms of a very active season.If you look at the information above June only had one named storm but July had 4,then August had 7 while September only had 3 and October had 4.What will 2005 be like in terms of formations month by month? I can say for sure that the Cape Verde Season will be very active but in terms of going fish or not it is early to say but 1995 saw many CV systems go fishing.2005 already has 2 named systems in June.IT means a hyperactive season? Not it has to be that way because many factors can cause the season to be more slow.Let's see what will occur during the rest of the season.



Any comments are welcomed.

[EDR1222]

I think it will definately be interesting to see how 2005 plays out since there has been some activity very early in the season.

One thing that seems to be different is that in 1995 there was a dominant east coast trough through most of the hurricane season with the exception being Erin which kind of snuck through at the very beginning of August and of course Opal in the Gulf. Even with the trough off the east coast however, the Carribean still took some very hard hits in 95.

According to what Stacy Stewart said earlier in the year, we had a flip flop of that pattern in 2004 and it would be unlikely, though not impossible, for the pattern to revert back to what occurred between 1995-2003, after a big shift last year.

Only time will tell!

Ed

[Swimdude]

At the least, I believe 1995 will be comparable to 2005 in some way, shape, or form before it's all said and done.

[msbee]

God, I hope not.
I don't want to live through a year like 1995 again!

[cycloneye]

God, I hope not.
I don't want to live through a year like 1995 again!

Yes I know what you went thru there and hopefully nothing like Luis type hurricane threats the islands in 2005.

[SkeetoBite]

This may be a bit easier to read than the unisys maps. We are almost done with this project and will release it soon...

[cycloneye]

Those are great grafics Skeet indeed better than Unisys .Thanks for posting them.

[SouthernWx]

Sometimes early activity means a dud season when all is said and done....1986 and 1968 for example; but other times can mean a wild and very destructive hurricane season (i.e. 1933, 1936, 1995)...

I believe this Atlantic hurricane season will be far more like 1933 and 1995 (in terms of storm numbers) than 1986. The early activity combined with near record deep tropical Atlantic sst's only increase my confidence of a much above normal season.

As for location, I say it again....last year signalled a big change in the major U.S. hurricane landfalling cycle; the first change period since 1984, and even more importantly for Floridians, the first change back to the Florida peninsula since 1950. I don't foresee 4 hurricanes slamming Florida (3 major) as in 2004....but I do strongly urge all residents of the Sunshine state, particularly southern Florida to keep a wary eye to the east and southeast between July and September, and just as wary eye to the south and southwest in October.

There hasn't been a landfalling south Florida major hurricane in October in a very long time (55 years), nor a cat-4/5 September monster in recent memory (not since Donna in 1960). Both September AND October are climatologically far more likely months than August for a landfalling major hurricane on the peninsula.


Sept FL peninsula major canes since 1846:

1848
1896
1919 (category 4)
1926 (4)
1928 (4)
1929
1933
1935 (5)
1945 (4)
1947 (4)
1948
1950 "Easy"
1960 "Donna" (4)
1965 "Betsy"
2004 "Jeanne"

total SEP: 15



Oct FL peninsula major canes since 1846:

1846 (cat-5)
1848
1873
1898 (4)
1906
1909
1910
1921
1944
1950 "King"

total OCT: 10



Aug FL peninsula major canes since 1846:

1871
1888
1949
1992 "Andrew" (cat-5)
2004 "Charley" (4)

total AUG: 5


PW

[cycloneye]

As always Perry a good historic prospective about the comparisons.

[Derek Ortt]

we had a 1995 with all of the landfalls last year

the difference was we didnt have a june storm and only 1 july storm. ther est of the season, the numbers were nearly identical, they just hit land

[MGC]

The early season activity we have witnessed this season will have no bearing on TC activity next month or the rest of the season. Perry is right on with his assessment......MGC

[cycloneye]

we had a 1995 with all of the landfalls last year

the difference was we didnt have a june storm and only 1 july storm. ther est of the season, the numbers were nearly identical, they just hit land

Yes that was the difference more landfalls in 2004 as the pattern favored that different from 1995.