TD has developed in the BOC?

[Stormcenter]

In my opinion I think that is the case and it's only a matter of time before the NHC confirms it. It looks like it's moving wnw slowly.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[TS Zack]

I wouldn't say its there yea but surely getting better organized. Convection has been persistent the past 6-12hrs.

The system will not move anywhere to fast. It is between a Ridge over Mexico & off the East Coast with a Trough in the middle.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

All the obs show a surface cirualtion. But that surface cirualtion is to the southeast of that biggest blow up. More where you see the newer convection. A upper high has formed over it with 10 knot shear max. A trough to the west is weaking at 10 to 20 knots. To the north of it is dry air. So this system has moist air to work with.

The latest Gfs shows it develop slowly...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

Tropical depression wait a few more hours. We also need more obs/Buoys/visible/Recon to confirm that it is a depression. Personally I think it is very close.

Also remember Bret formed over this area last time

[gkrangers]

Doesn't it look like it'll move onshore tho?

No invest.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The surface Circ is moving slowly to the west-northwest. The convection is what I think is making it seem it is moving fast. Obs would be changing more often if it where moving fast.

[mobilebay]

No offense to anyone here but this is the kind of posts that drive our Pro Mets nuts. I agree that it does look a whole lot better than 12 hours ago, but there is no proof that an LLC exists, nearly impossible to tell on nighttime IR or even IR2 imagery. Believe me I'm excited too but lets not call it a TD yet, Please.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here is the MM5 for Air force..It shows it moving slowly westward over the next few days making landfall by about 48 to 56 hours.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 800/5.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No offense to anyone here but this is the kind of posts that drive our Pro Mets nuts. I agree that it does look a whole lot better than 12 hours ago, but there is no proof that an LLC exists, nearly impossible to tell on nighttime IR or even IR2 imagery. Believe me I'm excited too but lets not call it a TD yet, Please.

Its getting there but I need more info. It gots a surface low which the winds seem to be moving around. The offically text book for a depression is a system with a closed low level cirualtion with winds moving around it. Which is tropical(Warmer core) With below 39 mph winds.

In also look at the buoys/surface obs. They are showing that there is a surface low.

[Stormcenter]

No offense to anyone here but this is the kind of posts that drive our Pro Mets nuts. I agree that it does look a whole lot better than 12 hours ago, but there is no proof that an LLC exists, nearly impossible to tell on nighttime IR or even IR2 imagery. Believe me I'm excited too but lets not call it a TD yet, Please.

All I did was ask the question. You know the old saying if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it must be.....

[mobilebay]

No offense to anyone here but this is the kind of posts that drive our Pro Mets nuts. I agree that it does look a whole lot better than 12 hours ago, but there is no proof that an LLC exists, nearly impossible to tell on nighttime IR or even IR2 imagery. Believe me I'm excited too but lets not call it a TD yet, Please.

All I did was ask the question. You know the old saying if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it must be.....

thank you for not taking offense to what I said.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here is more data...


This is a ob on the southwest side of the low.

0145 UTC
Wind from the NNW (330 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)
Sky conditions overcast
Pressure (altimeter) 29.84 in. Hg (1010 hPa)
ob MMMT 280145Z 33010KT 7SMBKN015 OVC03026/24 A2984 RMK 8/7// RA VC VARBS CONDS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMMT.html
1010 millibars pressure...North-northwest wind 330 degrees at 12 mph.
....................

Here is another out of the southeast of the low...

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCE.html


Wind from the S (180 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 KT)
Visibility 6 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Haze
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.87 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
Pressure tendency 0.03 inches (0.9 hPa) higher than three hours ago
ob MMCE 280245Z 18005KT 6SM HZ FEW010 SCT070 BKN200 25/24 A2987 RMK SLP116 52009 8/136 974


Out of the south at 180 degrees 6 mph. 10110 hpa/mililbars.


.....................................

A buoy just to the northeast of the center.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

This has the winds out of the east...With a slight northward because it is now west of there. 21 knots 1 minute winds with 25.1 knots gust.


My thinking, By this there seems to be a low level cirualtion. With at least 25 knots of wind. I'v seeen the nhc upgrade with less then this. But thats for another story. So by the text books this is very close.

[HurricaneJoe22]

sure looks a whole lot better than Calvin, that poor excuse for a tropical storm

[whereverwx]

Interesting... well, I sure think we will see Bret out of this... I will have to give it an 89% chance of forming. Not only because it makes Calvin look like a mouse, but, because it is the cat.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think the mouse has been ate by the cat.

[GalvestonDuck]

All I did was ask the question. You know the old saying if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it must be.....

"Well, go on...finish it!"

[vbhoutex]

All I did was ask the question. You know the old saying if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it must be.....

"Well, go on...finish it!"

LOL @ Duckie!!!!

[dhweather]

Look how dry the air is over Texas - that's just brutal.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

At least the GOM isn't bone dry any more.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the center is around 19.5N 95.5W drifting WNW. IMO it looks good enough to be a depression but might run out of time to become a storm b/c it looks like it's only 12-16 hours from landfall. If it were to become Bret he would be short lived.

[vbhoutex]

I don't think it is even going to make TD status, at least not officially. Maybe as it moves in some obs could confirm it. If this one had been maybe even 50 miles further North I believe we could have seen a TD or TS out of it. And of course an more NW or NNW track would have helped it too.

[Derek Ortt]

I would not be surprised to see a 5 p.m. TD classification out of this as visible imagery now clearly indicates a lclosed surface circulation, though it is on the east side of the convection