TWD 2:05 Jun 24 Special feature for 94L

[*StOrmsPr*]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NE ACROSS
GRAND BAHAMA AND GREAT ABACO ISLANDS TO NEAR 31N75W IS
INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS
MOVING SLOWLY W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA.
THESE TWO FEATURES LIE BENEATH A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE W COAST OF FLORIDA TO JUST W OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THIS TROF IS CAUSING
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY N AND E OF THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 70W-80W. THERE APPEAR TO BE
SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLOUD
MASS AND SEVERAL OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
AND CANADIAN...CONSOLIDATE THESE INTO A SFC LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND MOVE IT NW TOWARDS THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS. GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN AND
RECENT TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS IN THE VICINITY
FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE UPPER TROF
IS CURRENTLY SPREADING DRY AIR IN FROM THE W OVER S FLORIDA AND
THE NW BAHAMAS WHICH HAS KEPT THE HEAVIEST TSTMS MAINLY TO THE E
OVER OPEN WATERS. THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN/TSTMS WILL APPROACH
AND SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON
SAT...AND THEN A SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
FROM THE BAHAMAS TO S/CNTRL FLORIDA ON SUN AND MON AS THE UPPER
TROF LIFTS N.

[*StOrmsPr*]

[Zadok]

Let the games begin!

[chris_fit]

Let the games begin!

Sweet graphic

[wxcrazytwo]

HERE WE GO AGAIN.

[dhweather]

I just wanna catch up with the EPAC!

[HURAKAN]

I just wanna catch up with the EPAC!

The EPAC may be already working on being in the top even if Bret develops.

[PTrackerLA]

Look OUT!

[dixiebreeze]

And that's why Recon is scheduled for Sat. near Jax.