For those who are panicking over when Bret will form, here’s some climatology!
(Of course, this is based off of the past fifty years and includes storms that weren’t named, but would be named under today’s naming convention, to include subtropical systems)
Well, over the past fifty years, how many “B” named storms formed in June or earlier?
In 2003, Bill form in June. However, that was after Ana formed way in April.
In 1997, although “Bill” formed in July, an unnamed subtropical storm formed in May. Therefore, under proper naming, that storm would have been Ana, and the late-June storm would have technically been Bill.
In 1986, Bonnie formed during the last week of June.
In 1982, an unnamed subtropical storm formed in mid-June. If named today, that would have been Beryl.
In 1981, Bret formed in late-June.
In 1972, Agnes formed in mid-June. However, an unnamed subtropical storm in late May, if named today, would have made Agnes’s name “Betty.”
In 1968, Brenda formed in mid-June.
In 1959, Beulah formed in mid-June.
In 1957, Audrey formed in late-June. However, an unnamed tropical storm in early June, if named today, would have made Audrey’s name “Bertha.”
In any event, looking over the past fifty years and assuming today’s naming convention, the typical “B” name will form around July 27th. Yes, July 27th. I know, some of you are saying, “that can’t be! Look at the water temperatures! This is going to be a hyperactive season!” Well, consider this:
Over the past fifty years, when did the “B” name form for those years that had thirteen or more named storms (under today’s naming convention)?
1969: Hurricane Blanche – August 11th.
1971: Hurricane #2 (would have been Beth) – August 3rd.
1984: Tropical Storm Arthur (would have been Bertha thanks to a earlier subtropical storm) – August 28th.
1995: Tropical Storm Barry – July 5th.
1996: Hurricane Bertha – July 5th.
1998: Hurricane Bonnie – August 19th.
2000: Tropical Storm Beryl – August 13th.
2001: Tropical Storm Barry – August 2nd.
2003: Tropical Storm Bill – June 28th.
2004: Tropical Storm Bonnie – August 9th.
Here’s an interesting fact: ten out of the past fifty years had thirteen or more named storms (under today’s naming convention). Of those ten years, only one of the “B” storms formed in June. I'm not saying that this year's Bret will form on any given day, or any given month for that matter. I'm just offering some food for thought...
-Mike
....the weighting is certainly unmistakeable, however, maybe this is going to be another precedent setting year???......two in june and a total of three by 1 august????.....rich
(Although, trust me on this one)