...and it's crystal clear as early as 24 hours.
NOGAPS
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=024
NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024l.gif
CMC
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_024.jpg
GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024l.gif
Yeah, I think the models have some disagreements...
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The 4 day run of the 00z nam came in line with the European in saying 94l can only get so far north before she's pushed west. NAM does it around the coastline, the 12z ECMWF still wanted it further offshore. Looking at the IR (30 frame) loop tonight on the GOES Tropical Sector, it appears that a piece of the energy is surging off to the N while new convection is firing up along the wave axis out front of today's leftovers.
It should be an interesting couple of days to see what, if anything, brews up down there.
Steve
It should be an interesting couple of days to see what, if anything, brews up down there.
Steve
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Steve wrote:The 4 day run of the 00z nam came in line with the European in saying 94l can only get so far north before she's pushed west. NAM does it around the coastline, the 12z ECMWF still wanted it further offshore. Looking at the IR (30 frame) loop tonight on the GOES Tropical Sector, it appears that a piece of the energy is surging off to the N while new convection is firing up along the wave axis out front of today's leftovers.
It should be an interesting couple of days to see what, if anything, brews up down there.
Steve
Perhaps the MFL (Miami NWS) office has nailed this solution...and I agree with them...that the wave will split with the northern half ending up near SFL in a few days with the southern half out near the Yucatan.
Of course I am not going to guess at development other than I would venture that there will be none with either half...but it does get interesting in 3 days or so as high pressure starts to build back in (I am most relieved that the models are starting to come into agreement with a solution that looks reasonable in the steering layer (500MB)).
MW
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Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
Some notes from the most recent model diagnostic discussion:
FL/WRN CARIBBEAN...
THE 00Z NAM IS 20 TO 30 M TOO LOW WITH HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF FL THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE
FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... RAOBS DO NOT SUPPORT THESE LOWER
HEIGHTS. THE GFS APPEARS WELL INITIALIZED HERE...
MODEL TRENDS...
NAM...
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SLIDING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS/FL PENINSULA INTO
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHEAST...
THE 00Z/23 NAM... AFTER 24 HRS AND ON DAY 2... IS TRENDING MUCH
STRONGER WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE FL PENINSULA
FROM THE BAHAMAS/CUBA. THIS IS COMPARED TO THE EARLIER 12Z/22 NAM.
THE 00Z NAM NOW HAS A VERY WELL DEVELOPED VORT MAX/500 MB LOW
SLIDING ACROSS FL INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO/NERN GULF COAST
STATES TO GO ALONG WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH AXIS AT THE SURFACE.
GFS...
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SLIDING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS/FL PENINSULA INTO
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHEAST...
THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY TREND WITH THE 00Z GFS WHEN COMPARED TO THE
12Z/22 NAM IS THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY ON SHORT WAVE DETAIL DIFFS AND
THE HOW STRONG AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS IS APPROACHING THE SERN US.
EACH GFS RUN CONTINUES TO DELIVER ITS DAILY QPF FEEDBACK PROBLEMS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST/IN THE BAHAMAS WHICH OBVIOUSLY HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE SMALL SCALE AND EVENTUALLY THE LARGE SCALE OUT IN
TIME. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS MUCH MORE OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SLIDING UP FROM CUBA TO THE CAROLINAS FROM 24
TO 84 HRS.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK AND MOST UNCERTAINTY DEALS WITH THE
SOUTHEAST AND AND INVERTED TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING FROM
CUBA/BAHAMAS. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW ANY CONSISTENCY HERE
EXCEPT THE CANADIAN... WHICH HAS REMAINED VERY BOLD IN CLOSING OFF
AN EVENTUAL LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND BRING UP A POTENT AREA OF
VORTICITY/SURFACE LOW INTO THE CAROLINAS BY 84 HRS. THE GFS IS
TRENDING TOWARD THIS CANADIAN SOLUTION. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH
THIS THINKING GOES BACK A FEW DAYS WHERE THE GFS WAS ADAMANT ON
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATL AND
KEEPING HEIGHTS MUCH LOWER THROUGH THE REGION... BASICALLY NO 594
RIDGE OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATL COAST. SINCE A FEW DAYS AGO... THE
GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF FROM A FEW DAYS AGO OR A MUCH
STRONGER RIDGE OFF THE COAST. THE 00Z NAM/UKMET/SREF MEAN AND 12Z
ECMWF SHOW THIS POTENTIAL CLOSED 594 RIDGE CENTER OFF THE COAST
RESULTING IN BROAD ESERLY FLOW INTO THE SERN US AND INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE BAHAMAS. THE ONLY ISSUE WITH THE
NAM IS IT OVER DEVELOPS THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO FORCE THE
INVERTED TROUGH AND ANY VORTICITY TO TAKE A SHARP LEFT OR TOWARD
THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. AFTER
CONSULTING WITH OPC AND WITH LARGE SPREAD REMAINING WITH THE MODEL
GUDIANCE... BOTH CENTERS BELIEVE HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF AND A WELL DEVELOPED INVERTED
TROUGH WILL SLIDE UP TOWARD FL/SOUTHEAST. THIS MEANS NO SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT... JUST BROAD ESERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING IN A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL LL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
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