What's with the MM5 model

[boca]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

[boca]

sorry about that ,but the model shows a hurricane off Cozamel Mexico.

[stormcloud]

I really hope it's feed back problems....

[Derek Ortt]

the problem is that its a mesoscale model that is being run on a 36km resolution. It can be ran on a much higher resolution. I ran it earlier today on Beatriz at 15km, at which it produces much more realistic results.

FSU is running the MM5 at 33% less the resolution that the GFS is being run on (GFS is about 27km now).

[boca]

Does that mean in English that the MM5 is less reliable?

[MWatkins]

Does that mean in English that the MM5 is less reliable?

Yes.

The Airforce model...probably ranks behind the CMC model in terms of tropical storm handling.

So with the globals my opinion is (in terms of the tropics and forecasting developement or tracks) the overall ranking...

1: European
T2. GFS
T2. UKMET
4. NOGAPS
5. CMC
6. MM5

MW

[Derek Ortt]

the MM5 is not just an Air Force model.

The AF runs it primarily at 45km resolution, rendering it more inefficient that the version FSU has. It is perhaps the BEST model when the entire domain is run at 15km (including the synoptic environment at 15km)

[MWatkins]

the MM5 is not just an Air Force model.

The AF runs it primarily at 45km resolution, rendering it more inefficient that the version FSU has. It is perhaps the BEST model when the entire domain is run at 15km (including the synoptic environment at 15km)

Yes...I am referring to the 45km res version of the model...not sure how often the 15km entire domain is run and availalbe to look at...so i cannot comment on it's accuracy. I suppose I will have to take your word for it.

MW

[Derek Ortt]

its in experimental mode right now. We have had some success running it on storms from last year at UM (such as getting the tracks of Ivan and Jeanne 5 days prior to landfall exactly correct (including the loop made by Jeanne), where as the 45km resolution runs were downright horrific

[senorpepr]

Well... I will say this in defense of the AFWA MM5 (although I agree it's pretty useless for around North America): The windows of 5km and 15km, including some of the "special" 5km windows that ingest much more data than any model out there is awesome in parts of Southwest Asia...

[MWatkins]

its in experimental mode right now. We have had some success running it on storms from last year at UM (such as getting the tracks of Ivan and Jeanne 5 days prior to landfall exactly correct (including the loop made by Jeanne), where as the 45km resolution runs were downright horrific

Ah ha. Ok please keep us posted on how that is going...I didn't remember seeing 15km resolution info availalbe...I thought for a sec I was slipping...

Yes...the 45KM runs are probably not much better than shooting dice to come up with lat/long pairs.

Thanks Derek...

MW

[Derek Ortt]

I cannot release the actual runs... at least as of yet. We just don't want to release something that is in experimental mode that may or may not work. Idealy, we'd like to develop an ensemble with each component being a run with initial and lateral boundary conditions from the different global models, as well as GFDL and GFDN. That is likely yet a long way off though.

I may reference some of rhe runs in nwhhc discussions (yes, this is taking a HUGE chance in doing so as I may hit a grand slam, or into a triple play if the initial conditions are awful), then again, I may not. really will come down to where the storm is located at and how things are shaping up

[dhweather]

Well, you Air Force boys need to catch up to the Navy - 3,000 IBM Power 4+
processors of "love" for models. 10 Teraflops in one system. NYAH!
We run 1/32 degree nested global ocean models, among other things.

[BC]

Well, you Air Force boys need to catch up to the Navy - 3,000 IBM Power 4+
processors of "love" for models. 10 Teraflops in one system. NYAH!
We run 1/32 degree nested global ocean models, among other things.

Word.

[HURAKAN]

I really hope it's feed back problems....

I think the diagnostic is a "massive convective feedback."

[Steve H.]

go NAVY!!!