Next week all bets are off?

[Stormcenter]

This is from the NWS N.O. (One my favorite Gulf Coast weather discussions) 6-22-05.

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM...THERE WILL BE NO LET UP FROM THE HEAT. A FEW
DEGREES CAN TACKED ON TO EACH DAY UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ONLY
TO HAVE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVE INTO ITS PLACE AND PULL UP STATIONARY
OVER THE FLA PEN ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF FROM THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND BECOMES RETROGRESSIVE. AS IT MOVES WEST...IT WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING A DEEPER MOISTURE REGIME BACK TO THE AREA BY LATE
SAT AND SUN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW MORE TS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
AID OF AFTERNOON HEATING KEEPING TEMPS DOWN FOR THOSE WHO ARE
CAUGHT UNDER ONE OF MOTHER NATURES A/C. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST OVER THE GULF BY THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS PLENTY OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF BUT IT IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE
STRONG. A CONVECTIVE LOW/CIRCULATION MAY DEVELOP FROM SOME OF THE
INTENSE TS DOWN THERE BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED
AS IT SUBDUCTS THE UPPER TROUGH. ONCE THE UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY
BEGINS MOVING WEST AND OPENS THE GULF TO A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE PROVIDING MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...ALL BETS WILL BE OFF.

[gboudx]

Believe it or not, the DFW NWS has been posting discussions about potential GOM development. Saying that the models show a Westward track into Texas, then moving up near DFW.

[PTrackerLA]

I was about to post the same discussion this morning. I'm keeping my fingers crossed on this one for some decent rains. Whenever Texas gets a TS we usually get drenched and we could all use the rain.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Since a ridge is expected to build over Florida, I would think anything that develops would have to travel westward or northwestward at least if it got into the gulf.

[Mattie]

Seeing some activity up here in North Texas will be interesting!! We need the rain - but the rain brings ANTS!!!! I'm tired of killing these 3 mile high ant hills that appear after the rain!!!!



Mattie

[Skywatch_NC]

Need some more rain here, too, in central NC...suddenly mid to late June it becomes a scarcity. There is a 30% chance of some scattered showers/t-storms this afternoon and this evening so hopefully some of that will get into Wake Co.

Eric

[Brent]

Seeing some activity up here in North Texas will be interesting!! We need the rain - but the rain brings ANTS!!!! I'm tired of killing these 3 mile high ant hills that appear after the rain!!!!



Mattie

LOL

We've had a bunch of those(because we've actually gotten our rain for June already), even though outside of a little yesterday we haven't had any since Arlene a week and a half ago. So now everything will start to turn brown since it's turning dry.

[Stormcenter]

I think this what they may be referring to in the "all bets are off" comment in the discussion once this (E.Carribean) gets into the GOM early next week.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[gboudx]

Seeing some activity up here in North Texas will be interesting!! We need the rain - but the rain brings ANTS!!!! I'm tired of killing these 3 mile high ant hills that appear after the rain!!!!



Mattie

I'm not sure what would be more scary; the ant piles after rain, or my water bill in July.

[CaptinCrunch]

Seeing some activity up here in North Texas will be interesting!! We need the rain - but the rain brings ANTS!!!! I'm tired of killing these 3 mile high ant hills that appear after the rain!!!!



Mattie

We sure do need the rain, we are almost 6" behind for the year, as far as the ants go my chickens (5) take care of that issue , but my water bill is going to kill me if we don't get the rain soon, I hate a brown lawn!!

[Steve H.]

Hey, what's up with the 12Z CMC? Takes a storm from the Bahamas up the east coast of Florida?? Any other 12Z models out there yet?

[cycloneye]

Hey, what's up with the 12Z CMC? Takes a storm from the Bahamas up the east coast of Florida?? Any other 12Z models out there yet?

Any link to that 12z CMC Steve?

[clfenwi]

Hey, what's up with the 12Z CMC? Takes a storm from the Bahamas up the east coast of Florida?? Any other 12Z models out there yet?

Any link to that 12z CMC Steve?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

gives 72 hours of animation

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html

gives 144 hours of panels

The model in general has been talked about for the past few days... most recently here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=64991

(Haven't posted my thoughts on the 12z runs yet)

[cycloneye]

Hey, what's up with the 12Z CMC? Takes a storm from the Bahamas up the east coast of Florida?? Any other 12Z models out there yet?

Any link to that 12z CMC Steve?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

gives 72 hours of animation

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html

gives 144 hours of panels

The model in general has been talked about for the past few days... most recently here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=64991

(Haven't posted my thoughts on the 12z runs yet)

Ok thank you.

[dhweather]

Hey, what's up with the 12Z CMC? Takes a storm from the Bahamas up the east coast of Florida?? Any other 12Z models out there yet?

Interesting. Guess we'll have to watch and wait - as usual.

[vbhoutex]

Hey, what's up with the 12Z CMC? Takes a storm from the Bahamas up the east coast of Florida?? Any other 12Z models out there yet?

Interesting. Guess we'll have to watch and wait - as usual.

Vewy interestink!!!! Did you notice a high builds in and pushes it into the GA coast and on inland?

[Steve]

Check out what the European does (haven't had a chance to check out the 12z yet). It keeps a block over the SE and moves another high in from Texas. Anything weak and far enough south would be forced west. Anything above the latitude of the base of the Texas high could only remain roughly stationary or come NNW over to NNE. What that says is let's see how far the convection travels in longitude before we know who faces the shot at what is most likely going to be a surge of tropical moisture with a shot at a depression and outside chance for a tropical storm.

It appears the Canadian and GFS split the wave axis with a piece taking off to the Carolina coast and another piece continuing on westward. Whether or not this depcits both pieces of energy (some of the stuff that's been plaguing SW FL and the wave) or if it is focusing on just the wave is still unclear. There is a lot to be resolved if anything is going to develop as there is a fairly complicated pattern down in the NW Caribbean and SE Gulf. Some of the players coming onto the field include a surface trof, an upper trof, two tropical waves, a building high moving S from the mid-Atlantic states and an upper level low. Obviously conditions aren't favorable at this time and probably won't be for another 72 hours. At least we've got something to watch.

Steve

[Andrew92]

Hey, what's up with the 12Z CMC? Takes a storm from the Bahamas up the east coast of Florida?? Any other 12Z models out there yet?

Interesting. Guess we'll have to watch and wait - as usual.

Vewy interestink!!!! Did you notice a high builds in and pushes it into the GA coast and on inland?

I can't help it, I just love your first sentence David!

On a slightly more serious note (OK, more than slightly LOL), who knows what may happen with this potential GOM development down the road? Here's hoping you guys down there will get the rain you need, but not anything damaging or flooding, and also can't forget about our favorite pests.....ANTS.

-Andrew92

[dhweather]

It's so dry here that ants knocked on my front door begging me to water the yard.