)
I'll get the ball started with a small handful of my favorites...
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 60
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 05 2002
KYLE HAS A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES AND QUIKSCAT DATA. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BE INTERMITTENT AND IS REMOVED FROM THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AND WINDS COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY IF
SHEAR RELAXES AS ANTICIPATED.
KYLE APPEARS TO BE MOVING 020/4 AND A VERY SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KYLE SHOULD TURN MORE TO
EAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES.
NOT MUCH MORE CAN BE ADDED AFTER 60 ADVISORIES.
FORECASTER AVILA
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 78
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 09 2002
OH...OH...OH...OH...STAYIN ALIVE...STAYIN ALIVE. WITH NO TIME TO
SPARE...KYLE GENERATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WITH ENOUGH BANDING TO GENERATE A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF
T1.5 FROM TAFB. THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST INCREASE IN ACTIVITY WITH
SOME OF THE OTHER BANDS AS WELL...SO KYLE HAS BOUGHT ITSELF ANOTHER
SIX HOURS OF LIFE...AND PROBABLY MORE. WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LAST
FLURRY OF ACTIVITY...OR THE START OF A REGENERATION IN RESPONSE TO
AN INCREASE IN SSTS...IS NOT YET CLEAR. THE SHEAR...WHICH IS STILL
EVIDENT OVER THE SYSTEM...SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO...AT WHICH TIME THE CIRCULATION WILL BE UNDERNEATH AN
ANTICYCLONE...A CONFIGURATION FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN KYLE...HOWEVER...AND THE CYCLONE
IS STILL EMBEDDED IN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT. I SUSPECT THAT THE
THERMODYNAMICS ARE STILL TOO HOSTILE TO SUPPORT VERY MUCH
CONVECTION...AND SO I HAVE NOT CHANGED THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS THINKING COULD CHANGE IF KYLE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ITS ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/8...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. THE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT...AND MOST OF IT KEEPS KYLE OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE.
BASED ON THE TRENDS IN INITIAL MOTION AND THE SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS NOW OFFSHORE UNTIL 72 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS TRACK IS STILL TO THE LEFT OF NEARLY ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE MODELS.
KYLE IS NOW TIED FOR THE 7TH LONGEST-LASTING ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WITH THE NEXT ADVISORY IT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NUMBER 6 SPOT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2003
NANO NANO...NANO NANO...HEY HEY...GOODBYE. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING INDICATES MINDY IS A MERE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE
EXPOSED CENTER BECOMING INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP
FRONTAL-LOOKING CONVECTION TO THE EAST. MINDY IS DEGENERATING INTO
A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY
UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. GIVEN THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND
DRY ENVIRONMENT...THIS SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/5...CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN BEFORE AS THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS GETTING LEFT BEHIND AS THE DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES MORE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE
REMNANTS OF MINDY IS SLOWER THAN AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW BAM.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/COBB
