Possible tropical cyclone sooner then we thought?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Over the last hour or two a tropical wave/distrabance has moved to around 58 west.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gif


Also a high pressure area has started to build to the north(Now all the to 65 west) of the Distrabance/Wave. As that builds southwestward the Ull over the central Caribbean centered at 15 north/74 west is moving westward. The jet streak/Max is now located around 70 west. As this pattern enhances it has formed a Upper level high over the Eastern Caribbean right over our system. You can see that with the clouds which it is centered near 65 west/15 north. Also because of the high to the north getting stronger the system has picked up speed over the last few satellite images. In has also developed from a spread out area of thunderstorms/convection to a ball of convection centered near 13 north/59 west or long the wave axis.

So we got a upper high building to the north. Which should steer this to the west or west-northwest over the next 24 to 36 hours. Then we got a upper high forming over or near the system by the clockwise movement an the overall turning an the clouds.

The Cmc has it on target so far...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=000hr
This shows the 250 millibar pattern very good.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=000hr

The shear map shows that the jet max is centered around 70 west. With a upper level high over our system.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=000hr

12 hours 925 mililbars
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=012hr
The system enters the caribbeans.

At 18 to 24 hours it shows the system becoming better defined.
18 hours
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=018hr
24 hours
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=024hr

By 36 to 42 hours you can see a weakness/trough moving into southeastern Canada.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=042hr

48 hours a weakness appears at 80 west.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=048hr

60 hours
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=060hr

By 72 hours the weakness starts to left out. While a area of high pressure starts forming off the southeast coast. Around 45 north.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=072hr

By 96 hours this area of high pressure moves north of it. Which would push it to the west.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=096hr

108 hours
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=108hr

By 120 hours it has a 1000 millibar or so tropical storm off the coast.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=120hr

By that time a trough/Jet stream is to the northeast.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=120hr

The 12z nogaps builds the high pressure to the north way to late. Which is why it doe's not forecast this to play out. The Gfs is not doing very good for the past few weeks. In so it was not used. In which case it pushes a tropical wave into the western Caribbean with pressure falls.

[mobilebay]

None of your links worked for me.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Fixed!!! Also the MM5 is agreeing with this.

Here is the MM5.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 00/18.html

[mobilebay]

Matt, one thing to remember the Canadian has had a history of over strengthening TC's. For instanse, it had Arlene going in as a Cat 2 hurricane over Tampa. Do not look at the intensity forecast from the CMC is what I've learned.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Same with the GFDL.

[mobilebay]

Also, the Wave is just starting to impact Barbados. Here is a link to the obs their. Notice the wind shift with the beginning of the passage. They had strong easterlies then bang. Matt, is correct it is sliding under a ridge of High pressure. Could get a little interesting. Wouldn't you know it, as soon as I posted this, the winds wen't back to SSE with the 3AM OB.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

[mobilebay]

Whats making this even more interesting is now the 06Z ETA is now developing a weak low in the same area. We may have something if these models continue to come together on this scenerio.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[senorpepr]

Here's a quick FYI for everyone, the model formerly known as the ETA has now been renamed NAM (North American Mesoscale).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/docs/c ... ename.html

...just so everyone knows...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So it has out did the Gfs on that distrabance over the Eastern Pacific. Plus it has kicked the gfs by not developing that none event that it was forecasting to hit Florida. The Eta most of been upgraded. Good!!!

[Guest]

So how come you guys know all this information but the hurricane centre don't?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What are you talking about???? This is just my own forecast. Just looking at the data/models an or satellite. In other obs in making a forecast. In the Cmc has been forecasting some for the past 3 days now.

[Cookiely]

This is from the Tampa discussion. Interesting about the models.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 210815
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
245 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVERNIGHT AT
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE. STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY PERSIST OVER SARASOTA AND DESOTO COUNTIES. THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE STATE IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING
NORTHWARD BRINGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS OVER THE BAY
AREA. SATELLITE DATA KEEP SHOWING HEALTHY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE WATERS ON THE FLORIDA KEYS AREA WHICH WILL SLOWLY REACH THE
WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. WITH CURRENT LIGHT BUT
STEADY RAINSHOWERS OVER FMY...RSW AND MOST OF SARASOTA...20 POPS
WILL BE EXPANDED FOR THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
COASTAL WATERS AND KEEP 30 POPS FOR CHARLOTTE. THE AFTERNOON PERIOD
REMAIN WITH 40 POPS EVERYWHERE BUT WITH AN INCREASE TO 30 OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

GFS HAS BEEN IGNORED FOR MOST OF THE CURRENT EVENT DUE TO THE
INSISTENCE IN SPINNING A CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 21/00Z RUN
FINALLY IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF RELAXATION SO MAYBE IT WILL BECOME
USEFUL AGAIN AFTER TODAY. ETA/NGM NAMM WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE
BURDEN OF THE FORECAST. ETA RESULTS SHOULD BE APPROACHED WITH SOME
CARE AS IT HAS MISSED A COUPLE OF LOCALIZED SHORT WAVE PASSAGES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHICH BROUGHT SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE
US ATLANTIC MIGRATES NORTHWARD. THE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE STREAM
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE MAIN LOW CIRCULATION IS DEPICTED IN ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. KEEPING DAYTIME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-MON)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND IN
THEIR MEDIUM TO LONG TERM PROGS. THIS TIME YESTERDAY MODELS WERE
SUGGESTING SFC AND UPR RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TODAYS RUNS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
PORTION OF THE CURRENT TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BREAK OFF
AND SINK SOUTHWEST TO THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GOM BY WEEKS END.
HOWEVER...SFC PATTERN STILL SHOWS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING
OFF THE EAST COAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA. IN TERM OF SENSIBLE WX...DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL
CHANGES...THE LATEST SOLUTION WOULD STILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS INLAND AND WDLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
MAINLY OVER THE WATER AT NIGHT...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PART OF THE FORECAST. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND OF
MID/UPR TROF TO OUR WEST WITH STRENGTHENING S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WE
MAY HAVE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS IN THE EXTENDED WITH TIME...BUT
FOR NOW THE CURRENT 40 POPS DURING THE DAY AND 20 AT NIGHT LOOK OK.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

[weatherwindow]

very impressive presentation, matt. kudos. thoughtful analysis......nogaps isnt on board yet...but who knows. given the current dry spell(tropically speaking), it will be fun to watch. keep up the good work..............rich

[Trader Ron]

We have about 54 day's until the heart of the season starts. IF we have THREE named storms between now and August 15, that's ONE every 18 day's. How many blobs, waves will be have in that time? Maybe thirty. If you use my numbers, 10% of the blobs, waves will become a named storm.
The trick is to pick out what blob or wave will become the next named storm.

[clfenwi]

Fixed!!! Also the MM5 is agreeing with this.

Here is the MM5.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 00/18.html

Was agreeing, anyhow.

This was what it was forecasting for 00Z Friday (and was similar to the Candian):
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr

This is what it's showing now
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=096hr

and then at 120 hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr

[gatorcane]

Matt, your support looks impressive but there is one MAJOR argument against this happening:

There is a general rule that once a tropical wave enters the Eastern caribbean it simply doesn't develop. Hisorically this has been the case. Unless the tropical wave has developed prior to reaching the Caribbean, then the chances are low.

Thus, going with history I would say there is little chance of this wave developing.

[clfenwi]

Looks like the 12Z NAM has backed off the hints (that it was going to develop this system) that it was offering the past run or two.

[clfenwi]

The 12Z CMC run backs off also. It puts a 1011 low off North Carolina at 108h (00Z Sunday, as Matt noted above, previous run was putting a 1000 mb low off NC at this time) and moves it north before filling it.

[Anonymous]

Matt, your support looks impressive but there is one MAJOR argument against this happening:

There is a general rule that once a tropical wave enters the Eastern caribbean it simply doesn't develop. Hisorically this has been the case. Unless the tropical wave has developed prior to reaching the Caribbean, then the chances are low.

Thus, going with history I would say there is little chance of this wave developing.

Claudette...Charley...it CAN HAPPEN

[cyclonaut]

The models are backing off some..Thats why you gotta wait for consistency.