EPAC has been very quiet after Adrian

[cycloneye]

MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE MAY 17 2005

...EARLY SEASON DEPRESSION DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR...COULD CAUSE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...

INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO EL
SALVADOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST OR ABOUT
470 MILES... 760 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS UNUSUAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...OUTER RAINBANDS MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH IS
NOT TYPICAL...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION... 9.9 N... 95.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 8 PM PDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART


Today with the 2 PM PDT advisory on May 17 it marks exactly one month that TD1-E formed and after Adrian made landfall on the 19th of May nothing of interest has occured in that basin.There are statistics that show that slow EPAC seasons means active Atlantic seasons and viceversa.However there haved been years that both basins haved been active at the same time.If members have those stats about EPAC vs Atlantic activity dont hesitate and post them here.Let's see how the 2005 EPAC season does but according to the forecast from NOAA it will be a below average season (The average in the EPAC is 16 named storms).

[hurricanefreak1988]

All's quiet in the E-Pac... what a sweet sound.

[cycloneye]

All's quiet in the E-Pac... what a sweet sound.

I see that you are keeping score of both Basins at avatar.

[jrod]

The last year I remember a very quiet EPAC was '95 and we all know what kind of year the Atlantic had.

[Swimdude]

2004: 17 Storms [compare to 17 in Atlantic]




2003: 16 Storms [compare to 21 in Atlantic; note, all stats are including TD's]




2002: 15 Storms [compare to 12 in Atlantic]





2001: 15 Storms [Compare to 17 in Atlantic.]


[img]http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2001/track.gif
[/img]

2000: 19 Storms [Compare to 18 in Atlantic.]


[img]http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2000/track.gif
[/img]


[Of course!] 1995: 10 Storms! [Compare to 21 in Atlantic; again, these include TD's.]


[img]http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/1995/track.gif
[/img]




**********************
Unfortunately, I only see this trend that was mentioned during the 1995 season. It actually looks more like the two oceans have similar seasons.

[Swimdude]

Eeeek sorry the pictures didn't work. Not sure why... =/ Ah well, those are the links.

[HurricaneBill]

I think the most notable examples of both basins being active/inactive are 1977 and 1990.

In 1977, the Atlantic was 6/5/1. The EPAC was 8/4/0.

In 1990, the Atlantic was 14/8/1. The EPAC was 20/16/6.

Here's how the seasons compare with named storms:

1960:
Atlantic: 6/4/2
EPAC: 7/5/0

1961:
Atlantic: 10/8/7
EPAC: 10/2/0

1962:
Atlantic: 5/3/1
EPAC: 6/2/0

1963:
Atlantic: 8/7/2
EPAC: 8/4/0

1964:
Atlantic: 9/6/6
EPAC: 5/1/0

1965:
Atlantic: 5/4/1
EPAC: 10/1/0

1966:
Atlantic: 11/7/3
EPAC: 13/7/0

1967:
Atlantic: 8/6/1
EPAC: 16/6/0

1968:
Atlantic: 7/4/0
EPAC: 18/6/0

1969:
Atlantic: 13/10/5
EPAC: 10/4/0

1970:
Atlantic: 7/3/2
EPAC: 17/4/0

1971:
Atlantic: 12/5/1
EPAC: 18/12/6

1972:
Atlantic: 4/3/0
EPAC: 12/8/4

1973:
Atlantic: 7/4/1
EPAC: 12/7/3

1974:
Atlantic: 7/4/2
EPAC: 17/11/3

1975:
Atlantic: 8/6/3
EPAC: 16/8/4

1976:
Atlantic: 8/6/2
EPAC: 14/8/5

1977:
Atlantic: 6/5/1
EPAC: 8/4/0

1978:
Atlantic: 11/5/2
EPAC: 18/13/6

1979:
Atlantic: 8/5/2
EPAC: 10/6/4

1980:
Atlantic: 11/9/2
EPAC: 14/7/3

1981:
Atlantic: 11/7/3
EPAC: 15/8/1

1982:
Atlantic: 5/2/1
EPAC: 19/11/5

1983:
Atlantic: 4/3/1
EPAC: 21/12/8

1984:
Atlantic: 12/5/1
EPAC: 18/12/6

1985:
Atlantic: 11/7/3
EPAC: 22/12/8

1986:
Atlantic: 6/4/0
EPAC: 17/9/3

1987:
Atlantic: 6/3/1
EPAC: 18/9/4

1988:
Atlantic: 11/5/3
EPAC: 13/6/2

1989:
Atlantic: 11/7/2
EPAC: 17/9/4

1990:
Atlantic: 14/8/1
EPAC: 20/16/6

1991:
Atlantic: 7/3/2
EPAC: 14/10/5

1992:
Atlantic: 6/4/1
EPAC: 24/14/8 (The entire list of names was used)

1993:
Atlantic: 8/4/1
EPAC: 14/10/8

1994:
Atlantic: 7/3/0
EPAC: 17/9/5

1995:
Atlantic: 19/11/5
EPAC: 10/7/3

1996:
Atlantic: 13/9/6
EPAC: 8/5/2

1997:
Atlantic: 7/3/1
EPAC: 17/9/7

1998:
Atlantic: 14/10/3
EPAC: 13/9/6

1999:
Atlantic: 12/8/5
EPAC: 9/6/2

2000:
Atlantic: 14/8/3
EPAC: 17/6/2

2001:
Atlantic: 15/9/4
EPAC: 15/8/2

2002:
Atlantic: 12/4/2
EPAC: 12/6/4

2003:
Atlantic: 16/7/3
EPAC: 16/7/0

2004:
Atlantic: 15/9/6
EPAC: 12/6/3

[HurricaneBill]

All's quiet in the E-Pac... what a sweet sound.

No, that's not a sweet sound at all! The EPAC has just as much a right as the Atlantic to have tropical activity.

[HURAKAN]

The Atlantic Ocean and the Eastern Pacific balance each other, when one is active the other is not and vice-versa.

[cycloneye]

Thanks as always HurricaneBill for providing those stats and it is easy to see when there haved been very strong el nino years the atlantic shuts down while the Eastern Pacific is very active such as 1982,1983 and 1992.Let's see how 2005 ends up between the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific with neutral ENSO conditions.

[Swimdude]

Jeez, how strange would it be to go from zero major hurricanes from 1960-1970, and then have 6 in the 1971 season? Yikes!

[HurricaneBill]

Jeez, how strange would it be to go from zero major hurricanes from 1960-1970, and then have 6 in the 1971 season? Yikes!

Actually, I don't think the 1960-1970 data is accurate. With EPAC storms, the intensity was based on satellite pictures.

I'm pretty sure some of the EPAC storms between 1960-1970 were majors.

Will a reanalysis of EPAC storms be done?

[Radar]

What was the forecast as to the number of storms for the EPAC this season?

[mobilebay]

What was the forecast as to the number of storms for the EPAC this season?

11-15 Tropical Storms, average is 15-16. 6-8 hurricanes, average is 9. 2-4 Major hurricanes, average 5-6.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/E ... icane.html

[Brent]

Is a lull like this unusual? It certainly isn't in the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Is a lull like this unusual? It certainly isn't in the Atlantic.

For the EPAC it is a lull that is unusual as they have an average of 16 named storms overall.

[AussieMark]

if we look at the Analog years for 2005 we can see how inactive the Eastern Pacific has been in those seasons and the Atlantic has been busy.

Eastern Pacific has produced no higher than 3 Majors in the busier seasons. Where as the Atlantic produced a minimum of 3 majors.

Eastern Paciifc
2004: 12/6/3
2003: 16/7/0
1995: 10/7/3
1966: 13/7/0
1958: 13/5/0


Atlantic
2004: 14/9/6
2003: 16/7/3
1995: 19/11/5
1966: 11/7/3
1958: 10/7/4

[cycloneye]

if we look at the Analog years for 2005 we can see how inactive the Eastern Pacific has been in those seasons and the Atlantic has been busy.

Eastern Pacific has produced no higher than 3 Majors in the busier seasons. Where as the Atlantic produced a minimum of 3 majors.

Eastern Paciifc
2004: 12/6/3
2003: 16/7/0
1995: 10/7/3
1966: 13/7/0
1958: 13/5/0


Atlantic
2004: 14/9/6
2003: 16/7/3
1995: 19/11/5
1966: 11/7/3
1958: 10/7/4

Yes I haved noticed that the majors at EPAC haved been almost not seen in the past decades.However in 1997 Hurricane Linda has been the most powerful cane in the EPAC with 160 mph and higher gusts and the lowest pressure of 902 mbs.As all recall 1997 was the year of a very strong el nino causing the Atlantic to be quiet.

[AussieMark]

Linda was actually 185 mph
Guillermo was 160 mph

the 1997 season produced

2 category 5
5 category 3 (4 were 115 kts dunno if u call that 130 mph or 135 mph as 115 kts = 132.25 mph, so when u round up or down its closer to 130 mph than 135 mph)
1 category 2
1 category 1
8 reached only TS

last season with with 2 or more category 5s was 1994

1997 had a total of 7 majors
seasons with more majors
1993: 9
1992: 10 (includes 2 central pacific majors)
1985: 8
1984: 7
1983: 8

[Scorpion]

I think 115 kts is rounded up to 135 mph since Cat 4's have winds of 131 mph or greater so technically 115 kts is Cat 4 so they will round up to 135.