11:30 EDT TWO, NO "BRET" YET IN THE NEAR FUTURE

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on June 15, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A stationary upper-level low interacting with a surface trough
continues to produce cloudiness and scattered showers over the
north-central Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas. This system
has become less organized since yesterday and upper-level winds are
unfavorable for tropical cyclone development. However... locally
heavy rainfall and occasional gusty winds remain possible today
across portions of Jamaica... Hispaniola... and eastern Cuba.

An area of disturbed weather continues over the Bay of Campeche and
adjacent land areas in association with a tropical wave that is
moving very slowly westward. Surface pressures have not been
falling with this system... and tropical cyclone development is
unlikely due to its close proximity to land. However... upper
level winds are favorable for development... and an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will be available to investigate
the area on Thursday... if necessary. Periods of locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds may occur during the next day or two over
portions of southeastern Mexico.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.

Forecaster Knabb/Franklin

[Swimdude]

Hmmm it seems the attention has shifted to the BOC...

It's practically inland though, isn't it?

[Swimdude]

Actually, I take that back. The apparent circulation seems to be over water. Hmmm... I'm pretty sure Bret of 1999 formed just exactly in this spot. Let's see here:

Woah. Exactly is an understatement:

[jax]

Looks like this may be another Florida panhandle event.

Looking at the water vapor loop you can see the gap...
the moisture in the area is starting to be drawn in that
direction... Panama City Beach area...

Looks like more rain for the same group of people...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

tough to say if it'll be a storm or just rain...

[StormChasr]

Looks like this may be another Florida panhandle event.

Highly unlikely--can you give some scientific support as to why this could possibly be a "Panhandle event?" That seems a "less than 1%" possibility, since the area is virtually on top of the Mexico coastline, and shows minimal movement.

[jax]

Looks like this may be another Florida panhandle event.

Highly unlikely--can you give some scientific support as to why this could possibly be a "Panhandle event?" That seems a "less than 1%" possibility, since the area is virtually on top of the Mexico coastline, and shows minimal movement.

I did give support.... you miss-quoted me....
It's JMHO

[StormChasr]

I did give support.... you miss-quoted me....
It's JMHO

Rather premature, IMHO.

[george_r_1961]

The last loop I looked at showed upper level westerly winds over much of the tropics. Nothing will happen there until that changes.

[StormChasr]

My guess would be a land-weakened storm, clinging to the Mexico area, and spinning off some T-storms into the Gulf, which may affect parts of Texas and the Central Gulf in a NON-TROPICAL cyclonic manifestation. Doesn't look too good for a tropical system at present, and I think Texas can relax on that one.

Disclaimer: This is an independent forecast, and NOT an official project. For all factural and official forecasts, please consult the NHC.

[cyclonaut]

Looks like its got some good UL support..Appears to be slowly moving west however.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't know about anything developing out of the BOC. But when the upper level winds change from the SW due to the trough I guess it could move the wave to a better chance of developing. The shear will increase though. According to the GFS there could be a weak low forming closer to Fl: http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale