With the increase in predictions and the apparent active season we are now facing, what area of the coasts are the most vulnerable in terms of the absence of El Nino and the presence of La nina?
Gulf Coast- Mississippi east to Florida West Coast
Gulf Coast- Louisianna west to Texas Coast
Southern Florida
East Coast- Ga, SC south to Florida East coast
East Coast- The rest northward......
Does the El Nino/La Nina factors give any indication as to one area being more prone to acitivity than others?
Thanks for your input~
In your opinion.......
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GulfBreezer
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In your opinion.......
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cycloneye
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The east coast has a high risk to have a landfalling hurricane or more than one because of the bermuda high that will be strong and track the systems more close to the EC.
The GOM has a little less risk but the area most vunerable will be east of the delta of the mississippi because of the systems going from the caribbean up into the east GOM again the bermuda high the cause for the tracks.
The west GOM has a somewhat less risk but caribbean systems may go all the way to the WGOM.
All this can change if the pattern shapes up distint as the forecasts are saying so Gulfbrezzer be prepared this season and be safe.
The GOM has a little less risk but the area most vunerable will be east of the delta of the mississippi because of the systems going from the caribbean up into the east GOM again the bermuda high the cause for the tracks.
The west GOM has a somewhat less risk but caribbean systems may go all the way to the WGOM.
All this can change if the pattern shapes up distint as the forecasts are saying so Gulfbrezzer be prepared this season and be safe.
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In my opinion, La Nina will not be the primary factor in the 2003 hurricane season. It's going to be the Bermuda high and the Atlantic Water Temperature profiles. As to landfalls:
June: Gulf of Mexico (TX/LA/MS)
July: light activity month
August: FL, NC, Gulf
September: FL, NC, Gulf, NE
October: Eastern Gulf, FL, phasing systems up the East Coast
As far as the Bermuda Ridge and potential southern ridges, storm tracks will depend on their positions when in the area. When the BR becomes a dominant steering feature, storms usually run under and around them. Everything depends on their positions relative to the US as to where the hits will be. Stay tuned.
Steve
June: Gulf of Mexico (TX/LA/MS)
July: light activity month
August: FL, NC, Gulf
September: FL, NC, Gulf, NE
October: Eastern Gulf, FL, phasing systems up the East Coast
As far as the Bermuda Ridge and potential southern ridges, storm tracks will depend on their positions when in the area. When the BR becomes a dominant steering feature, storms usually run under and around them. Everything depends on their positions relative to the US as to where the hits will be. Stay tuned.
Steve
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