Some June Statistics

[recmod]

I just went back and looked at all the years since 1900 that had more than one storm in June (or a storm in May plus activity in June). I compared the early activity to the season's total number of storms. Here's what I found:

2003~ Ana in April, 1 TS in June..... Season total: 16 storms
1986~ 1 H, 1 TS in June...... Season total: 6 storms
1981~ 1 May TS, 1 June TS...... Season total: 11 storms
1968~ 2 H, 1 TS...... Season total: 7 storms
1959~ 1 May TS, 1 June TS...... Season total: 11 storms
1936~ 1 H, 2 TS...... Season total: 16 storms
1934~ 1 May TS, 1 June H...... Season total: 11 storms
1933~ 1 May TS, 1 June H...... Season total: 21 storms
1909~ 1 H, 2 TS..... Season total: 11 storms
1906~ 1 H, 1 TS...... Season total: 11 storms
1902~ 1 H, 1 TS...... Season total: 5 storms

As you can see, there is really no correlation between heavy early activity and the total season activity. In fact, some of the years with the most early activity (1986, 1968, 1902) had seasons that were well below normal in total storm development.

So, the fact that we are "possibly" looking at our second developing Caribbean system in the month of June does not necessarily forbode an active season overall...although the early indicators certainly suggest this.

Just some interesting tidbits...not trying to make any sweeping scientific statement here.

--Lou

[Swimdude]

Well, that's nice and all, but all you're relying on inconsistency to say that this season may not be active. Just about everything else, besides the inconsistency factor, points to an active season.

[Derek Ortt]

except for the westerly wind surges from the EPAC to the Caribbean, which are more typical of an el nino, as was the track of Adrian.

I would be surprised to see the activity of 1995, or for that matter 2003 or 2004