Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 14
Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on June 11, 2005
...Center of Arlene moves inland just west of Pensacola Florida...
at 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...all hurricane watches and warnings and all
coastal tropical storm warnings are discontinued...except for a
portion of the coast from the Alabama/Mississippi border eastward
to Panama City Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect
only from the Alabama/Mississippi border eastward to Panama City.
The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued later
tonight.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the large center of circulation of Tropical
Storm Arlene was located inland near latitude 30.7 north...
longitude 87.4 west...or about 20 miles northwest of Pensacola
Florida.
Arlene is moving toward the north near 15 mph. This motion is
expected to continue during the next 24 hours...bringing the center
of Arlene farther inland.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph...with higher
gusts...confined to the southeast of the center and over water.
Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles to the
southeast of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb...29.26 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...continues
east of where the center has made landfall. Surge and waves should
gradually decrease during the next few hours. Coastal water levels
are beginning to decrease to the west of where the center has made
landfall.
Arlene is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4
inches primarily to the north and just to the west of the storm
track...from the lower Mississippi Valley northward into parts of
eastern Indiana and western Ohio over the next 36 hours. Isolated
maximum amounts of up to 6 inches are possible in this area.
Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...30.7 N... 87.4 W. Movement
toward...north near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 50 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 991 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 PM
CDT.
Forecaster Avila/Knabb
6/11/05 5 PM EDT 30.7 N 87.4 W - JUST W OF PENSACOLA
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Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 14
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on June 11, 2005
the large center of circulation of Arlene crossed the coast just
west of Pensacola Florida around 1900 UTC. The minimum pressure
reported by the aircraft just before landfall was 991 mb...which is
also similar to the pressure reported by the Pensacola Naval Air
Station at the time of landfall. The maximum winds associated with
Arlene have been decreasing during the past several hours and the
initial intensity at this time is 45 knots. These winds are
confined to the southeast quadrant over water. Since Arlene is
expected to continue moving northward and farther inland at about
13 kt...it is forecast to weaken.
It is interesting to note that visible satellite images indicated
that the cloud pattern associated with Arlene has been more
symmetric today...which is more typical of a tropical cyclone. In
fact...T-numbers today were up to 3.5 on the Dvorak scale...the
highest observed in Arlene. This coincided with a contraction of
the wind field.
Forecaster Avila/Knabb
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 11/2100z 30.7n 87.4w 45 kt
12hr VT 12/0600z 32.5n 87.5w 30 kt...inland
24hr VT 12/1800z 36.0n 87.5w 20 kt...remnant low
Not much to say!
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on June 11, 2005
the large center of circulation of Arlene crossed the coast just
west of Pensacola Florida around 1900 UTC. The minimum pressure
reported by the aircraft just before landfall was 991 mb...which is
also similar to the pressure reported by the Pensacola Naval Air
Station at the time of landfall. The maximum winds associated with
Arlene have been decreasing during the past several hours and the
initial intensity at this time is 45 knots. These winds are
confined to the southeast quadrant over water. Since Arlene is
expected to continue moving northward and farther inland at about
13 kt...it is forecast to weaken.
It is interesting to note that visible satellite images indicated
that the cloud pattern associated with Arlene has been more
symmetric today...which is more typical of a tropical cyclone. In
fact...T-numbers today were up to 3.5 on the Dvorak scale...the
highest observed in Arlene. This coincided with a contraction of
the wind field.
Forecaster Avila/Knabb
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 11/2100z 30.7n 87.4w 45 kt
12hr VT 12/0600z 32.5n 87.5w 30 kt...inland
24hr VT 12/1800z 36.0n 87.5w 20 kt...remnant low
Not much to say!
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