Land falls vs. Number of Storms Predicted

[Tip]

Although the number of predicted storms keeps going up (Dr. Gray), the onpoing synoptic pattern along the East Coast favors storms turning out to sea into the centra Atlantic graveyard. I admit this pattern could change during the course of the summer, but there are indications that the East Coast tough now in place will not go away through June. A general weakness in the extent of he Bermuda High's westard limit coupled with the persistent east coast trough will steer any storms forming in the subtropical Atlantic well away from the coast. This is not to say that storms forming in the carribean or GOM would not have a landfall.
Just my amateur observation.

[OtherHD]

You're probably right. But in Gary Gray's outlook released yesterday, he said the trough would favor an EC landfall, or at least, an upper EC landfall. That left me scratching my head...it didn't make sense to me.

[Dakotawx558]

This is where Central Atlantic SSTA's come into play. The Central Atlantic SSTA's have been well below average year so far, and based on the NAO pattern, this is likely to remain throughout the hurricane season. The cooler these SSTA's are, the weaker tropical systems will remain.

Let's not forget 1999--this season had a fairly extensive amount of troughing off of the EC. However, the Central Atlantic SSTA's were cool that year. This is the main reason why Floyd stayed weak until he reached the SE Bahamas. Many forget that Floyd was almost turned north and out to sea, but ultimately, the storm wasn't strong to enough to entirely feel the weakness to its north.

To add to this, the MEAN trough position has been 90-100 W this year. This will slow the delay of troughs, opening up more oppourtunity for storms to hit, if they have the right timing. Too many times, many people forget about the mean formative position of the troughs, thus, they tend to focus on what happens the the EC instead of how it progresses further west.

[Steve]

Tip,

I completely disagree. Look for major riding off the SE (particularly the Florida coast) this year. The cold central-Atlantic Temps argue for trofiness 'out there'. The Bermuda High should be strong again this year with subordinate/additional ridging oscilating near FL. The pattern we're seeing now is retrogressing. The key is where the mean (axis) of the trof ends up. I'm thinking it's going to be between 92-97 for the summer.

And remember this about June. It's a small-time month for storms. Some close-in stuff develops (usually weak) and rains til Kingdom Come at landfall, but don't get caught up in the nature of things now. It's a transitional season. Watch what happens over the next 15-20 days and you'll see what I'm talking about.

Great post Dakota. The mean trof should settle between 92-97 (as noted above) this year. That argues for landfall potential from coastal NC all the way back to south Texas. And if the water (shoreline) in the NE heats up like the water 100 miles east, even the east coast will be open for business when if anything's around in periods of the Bermuda Ridge pulsing eastward.

Trust me. This is going to be one of the most interesting seasons ever on the internet. 2002 was great in Louisiana, but not much elsewhere. 2003 should provide plenty of landfalls in a much broader area.

Steve

[Toni - 574]

I looked at these analog years 52,54,84,88,89,96,98,2000,and 2001 I counted the number of storms (107) and the landmasses that was affected. I was amazed to actually see how many of the storms hit the Islands, re-curved, and or dissipated, as much as 70% in 2000 and as little as 23% in 1996.Percentage rating by land falls are as follows:

Location: # Storms: Percent:
Florida 11 10.33
Texas 8 7.44
N.E Seaboard 7 6.50
Mexico 7 6.50
North Carolina 6 5.50
Louisiana 4 4.65
Central America 3 3.62
Cuba 2 1.86
S. Carolina 1 .93
Georgia 1 .93
Mississippi 1 .93
Alabama 1 .93
*Islands 54 .50
*These Storms affected the Islands, re-curved, or dissipated.

Let’s take a look at Florida, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. If we combine the chances in these areas then we would have a 24% chance for a GOM U.S. landfall.
Now, let’s look at Georgia, S. Carolina, N. Carolina, and on up the Eastern Seaboard. If we combine these areas then we would have a 13.8% chance of a landfall.

Mexico has a 6.5% chance for a landfall. Cuba has a 1.8% chance for a landfall.

The Islands will see a 50% chance of some type of activity, a landfall, re-curving storm, or dissipation.
I also looked at 1964, as a stand-alone year. There were 11 storms:


Florida W. Coast 2 storms 18%
Florida E. Coast 2 storms 18%
Texas 1 storm 9%

Louisiana 1 storm 9%
C. America 1 storm 9%
Re-curve 4 storms 36%

My prediction for the 2003 Hurricane Season: 13-9-3
5- storms will re-curve out in the Atlantic
3-GOM landfalls with 1 major
2-W. Atlantic landfalls with 1 major
3-Island land falls with 1 major

TONI