DR William Gray upgrades his numbers to 14/8/3

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cycloneye
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DR William Gray upgrades his numbers to 14/8/3

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 30, 2003 6:24 am

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... /june2003/

Wow I made my forecast on may 1 and came out with the same numbers that he has now and that has been at my signature for 3 weeks. :D

But what comments all here have with this upgrade from him from 12 to 14 named storms?Read the whole report and have your conclusions but I have mines.

I say that all the pattern shaping up is for an active season and the key will be the la nina factor that will be there by the peak of the season but other factors such as sst's warmer,Azores high more weaker,pressures below average,thermoline circulation too will concide to make this 2003 season active and dangerous. :o The QBO winds may be somewhat of an inhibitor factor but not too much.
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#2 Postby chadtm80 » Fri May 30, 2003 11:20 am

Thats what i figured would happen
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Gray potentially going out of business......

#3 Postby Derecho » Fri May 30, 2003 12:05 pm

Few people actually read the FULL forecast instead of the press release; this was in the full forecast:



"NOTE ON THE CONTINUATION AND IMPROVEMENT OF CSU FORECASTS
The federal agencies of NOAA, FEMA and ONR who are charged with funding this type of forecasting research have declined support. The majority of the financial backing of these CSU hurricane forecasts in recent years has come from the research foundations of the insurance groups of the United Services Automobile Association (USAA - $300K over four years and State Farm - $375K over three years). We will always be grateful for their support. These two insurance groups are not continuing their support. They have given more than their fair share of support for the insurance industry. We must find other funding to continue issuing hurricane forecasts and to undertake the background research necessary to sustain them. It is hoped that other private or government groups who would like to see our hurricane forecast continue provide us with financial help."


Unfortunately it seems like NOAA is basically taking over his turf; as I've already noticed on a number of boards the vague NOAA forecasts are now routinely confused with Dr. Gray's entirely separate forecasts, and they're now getting more publicity than Gray, especially since they're releasing them a couple weeks earlier than Gray's Season-start forecasts. Ironic since they're entirely based on the methodology developed by Gray.

Hilarious that the funding per year is only $200,000; in the world of science grants and funding that's absolutely chicken-scratch peanuts territory....practically nothing. Yet the weird crowd of obsessive Gray-bashers always seem to mention him "wasting money" as if his forecasting cost as much as the Apollo program or the Manhattan project.

Hell, taking up a Storm2K collection could probably fund him 10% for one year :-)
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 30, 2003 1:43 pm

I sense a battle going on between noaa and CSU ( Colorado State University).
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rainstorm

#5 Postby rainstorm » Fri May 30, 2003 2:41 pm

gray is much more interesting than noaa. i ignore what noaa says anyway.
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#6 Postby wx247 » Fri May 30, 2003 2:45 pm

Thanks for posting the info...and the rest of the story Derecho.
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 30, 2003 3:26 pm

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... lease.html

Here is the press release and I posted it because many may not read the whole report and a long one but at this press release it talks about all of why he sees an active season.
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#8 Postby Stormsfury » Fri May 30, 2003 7:35 pm

Honestly, I'm not that surprised about Dr. Gray increasing his forecast numbers ...Aside from the QBO, the rest of the factors are coming together for an above average season, reflected in many of our forecasts here as well for this upcoming Tropical Season 2003.
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rainstorm

he really didnt up his numbers much at all

#9 Postby rainstorm » Fri May 30, 2003 9:37 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Honestly, I'm not that surprised about Dr. Gray increasing his forecast numbers ...Aside from the QBO, the rest of the factors are coming together for an above average season, reflected in many of our forecasts here as well for this upcoming Tropical Season 2003.


we already had ana, so he is only upping it one named storm. the important numbers, canes and majhors are the same, as well as intense cane days and cane days.
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#10 Postby Dakotawx558 » Sat May 31, 2003 4:28 am

Ahem, but I think we need something better than this:
There is a 90% chance that a hurricane season will experience 1-13 storms. Well, that is a little bit of a stretch in humor, but I think the public needs something a bit more specific than what NOAA presents us. The error will be explained better in a larger forecast range, but other than that, there may not be an advantage. But I don't know how many prepare off of Gray's forecast or NOAA's, so... :roll:
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