8 AM=55 mph

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 6:49 am

WTNT31 KNHC 101146
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...ARLENE EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM
PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING
THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THESE WARNINGS MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HR.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8
WEST...ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

ARLENE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...16 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...ARLENE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA THIS
MORNING...AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH... 90
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL
AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA.
GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION LATER
TONIGHT.

SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN
CUBA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...22.6 N... 84.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 55 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA

GulfBreezer · #2 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 6:51 am

Thanks Cyc, but not exactly good news huh? Do you think this strengthening will continue? There sure is a lot of warm water in front of her!

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 6:54 am

GulfBreezer wrote:Thanks Cyc, but not exactly good news huh? Do you think this strengthening will continue? There sure is a lot of warm water in front of her!

If shear fades yes it can intensify more (to 65-70 mph) but I will not go far to say it will be a minimal hurricane.

PTPatrick · #4 Postby **PTPatrick** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 6:55 am

I am concerned in the bumb up in strength...not exactly what was forecast. I think this could make strong TS/Cat 1. something the likes of Danny. Danny when up mobile bay too. I dont think the rains will be that high though. Danny was an 85 mph storm...which I dont expect with Arlene.

Aquawind · #5 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 6:57 am

Sure seems like it'a past the poorly defined phase of the past..yet dispaced from the convection.. The low levels were better organized late last night..Yes I do imagine the intensity forecast will go up more if this keeps up today.. They had 55kts at landfall.. were already there and yes the water is plenty warm..

Totally pouring here this morning..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

Paul

#6 Postby **tracyswfla** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 6:59 am

Aquawind wrote:Sure seems like it'a past the poorly defined phase of the past..yet dispaced from the convection.. The low levels were better organized late last night..Yes I do imagine the intensity forecast will go up more if this keeps up today.. They had 55kts at landfall.. were already there and yes the water is plenty warm..

Totally pouring here this morning..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

Paul

Rain Rain Rain! Hello Arlene

Aquawind · #7 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:02 am

tracyswfla wrote:
Aquawind wrote:Sure seems like it'a past the poorly defined phase of the past..yet dispaced from the convection.. The low levels were better organized late last night..Yes I do imagine the intensity forecast will go up more if this keeps up today.. They had 55kts at landfall.. were already there and yes the water is plenty warm..

Totally pouring here this morning..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

Paul

Rain Rain Rain! Hello Arlene

Alright Tracy.. it's official your a weather geek like the rest of us.. How in the world could you being smiling with the flooding ahead..lol

Paul

Rainband · #8 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:03 am

Mine isn't far off. Hope it stops by 5am tomorrow when I have to go to work :eek:

#9 Postby **tracyswfla** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:03 am

Aquawind wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:
Aquawind wrote:Sure seems like it'a past the poorly defined phase of the past..yet dispaced from the convection.. The low levels were better organized late last night..Yes I do imagine the intensity forecast will go up more if this keeps up today.. They had 55kts at landfall.. were already there and yes the water is plenty warm..

Totally pouring here this morning..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

Paul

Rain Rain Rain! Hello Arlene

Alright Tracy.. it's official your a weather geek like the rest of us.. How in the world could you being smiling with the flooding ahead..lol

Paul

Paul,

I am a weather geek.... what can we do.....it's Florida. I pray for everyone's safety, but do love tropical weather. I am crazy cause Charley cost me 26K in damage.

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:04 am

OMG.

Aquawind · #11 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:06 am

Well Tracy your still smiling to thats a credit to you..

Stay Safe

Paul

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:08 am

Aquawind wrote:Well Tracy your still smiling to thats a credit to you.. Stay Safe

Paul

Hey Paul, lemme know if you need a boat down there :lol:

#13 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:09 am

There's a way outer band even appraoching me. Woohoo /homer

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... klix.shtml

Steve

Aquawind · #14 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:11 am

Ditches are full.. not over the road yet.. Debris all over the place and it is messy out there. 2004 all over. :eek:

Make it a big boat so I can haul the house away to..lol

Paul

Rainband · #15 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:13 am

I will send the norweigen star :wink:

Aquawind · #16 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:15 am

Excellent.. Bring on the Buffet..lol

Paul

Agua · #17 Postby **Agua** » Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:15 am

Steve wrote:There's a way outer band even appraoching me. Woohoo /homer

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... klix.shtml

Steve

Great. Here we go, just in time for the trip to the office. :roll:

8 AM=55 mph

8 AM=55 mph

it concerns me

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