18:00 UTC Models

[cycloneye]

Some of them such as the BAMM and BAMD are a little more east than earlier runs.

[HURAKAN]

Western Florida Panhandle, be ready and prepared!

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like Appalachicola may be in the game with Arlene.

[jax]

they seem to be a little more spread out now
than they did last run...

[dwg71]

They are a little spreadout, but still in aggreance. In earlier thread, I said Ft Walton Beach, I'll stick with that. Though I had it coming in Sat AM.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think Fort Walton Beach as well.

[StormChasr]

Same place as Ivan---Alabama/Florida border area.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

All these models are doing is giving a general idea where this storm may go. Every update through tomorrow, maybe even early Sat, they will change some. IMHO that High Pressure building in looks pretty strong. Just with last year I think the models are having trouble picking up on the strength of them. We could very well see this storm move in a more westerly componet and catch everyone by surprise. Only time will tell

[Opal storm]

I'm still sticking to a MS/AL landfall.

[dwg71]

All these models are doing is giving a general idea where this storm may go. Every update through tomorrow, maybe even early Sat, they will change some. IMHO that High Pressure building in looks pretty strong. Just with last year I think the models are having trouble picking up on the strength of them. We could very well see this storm move in a more westerly componet and catch everyone by surprise. Only time will tell

How far west do you think. I'm guessing you are going to say LA.

[slowjoe]

Florida Panhandle is going to get it.

[clfenwi]

IMHO that High Pressure building in looks pretty strong. Just with last year I think the models are having trouble picking up on the strength of them. We could very well see this storm move in a more westerly componet and catch everyone by surprise. Only time will tell

I've been thinking about and watching the issue of models underdeveloping/overweakening ridges. The GFS had a significant problem with that last year (during Frances and Ivan; IIRC this affected the GFDL also since it uses the GFS' initializeation). This time, however, it is to the left of consenus (not the right, which is where it was for Ivan).

I haven't had time to carefully examine model initalizations for signs of under/over-representing the ridge.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

No DWG71, I am not wanting it to hit LA. That would be called -removed-. All it would bring is headaches and flooding. I don't know where you are but we have had heavy t'storms everyday this week dropping up to 3 inches of rain an hour. Our grounds are saturated and we could use some drying out time with a good north breeze. I truely think she will make landfall in Mississippi around Gulfport/Biloxi. So don't insinuate where I think it will go based on where I live. All I'm saying is watch her because there is a good chance she could go further west than the models are showing.

[Frank P]

we all seem to forget how many times last season the models were flip flopping after every run, most especially when the storms were so far away... and they will with this system too... that's a no brainer

[dwg71]

The models with this system have not flipflopped at all, they have all been in agreeance with landfall near the MS/AL/FL panhandle coastlines. They have only swayed slightly East and West.

[PTrackerLA]

No DWG71, I am not wanting it to hit LA. That would be called -removed-. All it would bring is headaches and flooding. I don't know where you are but we have had heavy t'storms everyday this week dropping up to 3 inches of rain an hour. Our grounds are saturated and we could use some drying out time with a good north breeze. I truely think she will make landfall in Mississippi around Gulfport/Biloxi. So don't insinuate where I think it will go based on where I live. All I'm saying is watch her because there is a good chance she could go further west than the models are showing.

Well that's a big change from where I live. We're still in a 10" rainfall deficit for the year and could handle heavy rains from Arlene. Sure there would be some flooding but most likely it would just big a drought buster. Unfortunately I believe she is panhandle bound...

[dhweather]

No DWG71, I am not wanting it to hit LA. That would be called -removed-. All it would bring is headaches and flooding. I don't know where you are but we have had heavy t'storms everyday this week dropping up to 3 inches of rain an hour. Our grounds are saturated and we could use some drying out time with a good north breeze. I truely think she will make landfall in Mississippi around Gulfport/Biloxi. So don't insinuate where I think it will go based on where I live. All I'm saying is watch her because there is a good chance she could go further west than the models are showing.

Well that's a big change from where I live. We're still in a 10" rainfall deficit for the year and could handle heavy rains from Arlene. Sure there would be some flooding but most likely it would just big a drought buster. Unfortunately I believe she is panhandle bound...

I feel your drought pain - no rain in May until the 29-31, then we got 6+ inches of rain over the last three days.

[LaBreeze]

CycloneMike, I'm curious to know, what are you seeing or thinking that might cause a more westerly movement and possibly a more westerly landfall? Just curious and wanting to learn more.

[PTrackerLA]

CycloneMike, I'm curious to know, what are you seeing or thinking that might cause a more westerly movement and possibly a more westerly landfall? Just curious and wanting to learn more.

Hard to argue with the upper air pattern and all the models in seemingly agreement. IMO the only way Arlene will travel further westward than forecasted is if she would stall in the southern gulf and that doesn't seem likey at this time.

[LaBreeze]

Thanks PTrackerLA. I was thinking that there was something new on the Atlantic High building in.