MM5 - the madness continues

[dhweather]

As a statistics professor told me, at least be consistent.

Please remember, this scenario is highly unlikely.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

[tailgater]

WOW at least this model weakens it over land

[StormChasr]

Clearly corrupt data, or poor setup with the program--at any rate, this set is off the wall--it isn't the computer, but the person who wrote the software.

[loon]

I thought consistancy and model convergence was what we looked for in model runs....it seems everyone is bashing every model that agrees with a CAT1+ rolling into the northern GOM states....

I realize its early, and things change on a whim, and long range model intensity and track should be taken with a grain of salt. It just seems everyone is against the models this year, more than normal. I guess in a week (or less, fizzle fizzle) we can reflect on these postings and see just how "off" the models were.

just my $0.02

[Agua]

What is the MM5? Anyone (like Mike Watkins, hint, hint) know what it's strengths and weaknesses are (e.g., what size system does it handle best, what latitutdes does it operate best in)?

[Stormcenter]

I thought consistancy and model convergence was what we looked for in model runs....it seems everyone is bashing every model that agrees with a CAT1+ rolling into the northern GOM states....

I realize its early, and things change on a whim, and long range model intensity and track should be taken with a grain of salt. It just seems everyone is against the models this year, more than normal. I guess in a week (or less, fizzle fizzle) we can reflect on these postings and see just how "off" the models were.

just my $0.02

I wonder if it were August or September would the feelings be any different against what the models are saying? Maybe it's because some people have a hard time believing we could have a Cat.1 hurricane threatening somewhere along the Gulf coast in early June. Folks unfortunately the "possibility" is there the models could be right.

[drezee]

[Brent]

I thought consistancy and model convergence was what we looked for in model runs....it seems everyone is bashing every model that agrees with a CAT1+ rolling into the northern GOM states....

I realize its early, and things change on a whim, and long range model intensity and track should be taken with a grain of salt. It just seems everyone is against the models this year, more than normal. I guess in a week (or less, fizzle fizzle) we can reflect on these postings and see just how "off" the models were.

just my $0.02

I wonder if it were August or September would the feelings be any different against what the models are saying? Maybe it's because some people have a hard time believing we could have a Cat.1 hurricane threatening somewhere along the Gulf coast in early June. Folks unfortunately the "possibility" is there the models could be right.

Wasn't Betsy a Cat 4 when it hit LA in June? Not saying that happens here, but you can't discount a hurricane on the Gulf Coast. Allison in 1995 was a Cat 1 until right before landfall.

[Stormcenter]

I thought consistancy and model convergence was what we looked for in model runs....it seems everyone is bashing every model that agrees with a CAT1+ rolling into the northern GOM states....

I realize its early, and things change on a whim, and long range model intensity and track should be taken with a grain of salt. It just seems everyone is against the models this year, more than normal. I guess in a week (or less, fizzle fizzle) we can reflect on these postings and see just how "off" the models were.

just my $0.02

I wonder if it were August or September would the feelings be any different against what the models are saying? Maybe it's because some people have a hard time believing we could have a Cat.1 hurricane threatening somewhere along the Gulf coast in early June. Folks unfortunately the "possibility" is there the models could be right.

Wasn't Betsy a Cat 4 when it hit LA in June? Not saying that happens here, but you can't discount a hurricane on the Gulf Coast. Allison in 1995 was a Cat 1 until right before landfall.

Betsy was in September 1965.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not convinced yet that the mm5 could be all that far off. The latest wind shear tendencies show wind shear decreasing as much as 20 kts over the area and there is virtually no wind shear out in the southern Gulf. If this system organizes quickly today and tomorrow it will have 2/3 of the Gulf with sst's over 80 to converse.

Yes, this scenario is hard to believe, but not highly unlikely IMO.

[Steve]

MM5 is a Penn State model if I'm not mistaken. It does throw some weird curve balls from time to time.

Steve

[Brent]

I thought consistancy and model convergence was what we looked for in model runs....it seems everyone is bashing every model that agrees with a CAT1+ rolling into the northern GOM states....

I realize its early, and things change on a whim, and long range model intensity and track should be taken with a grain of salt. It just seems everyone is against the models this year, more than normal. I guess in a week (or less, fizzle fizzle) we can reflect on these postings and see just how "off" the models were.

just my $0.02

I wonder if it were August or September would the feelings be any different against what the models are saying? Maybe it's because some people have a hard time believing we could have a Cat.1 hurricane threatening somewhere along the Gulf coast in early June. Folks unfortunately the "possibility" is there the models could be right.

Wasn't Betsy a Cat 4 when it hit LA in June? Not saying that happens here, but you can't discount a hurricane on the Gulf Coast. Allison in 1995 was a Cat 1 until right before landfall.

Betsy was in September 1965.

OK... but there was a Cat 4 that hit LA in June(Audrey?) in 1957...

[PTrackerLA]

Correct Brent, killed 400-500 people. Hurricanes DO hit the northern gulf coast in June. Frankly I'm starting to get concerned with all these models showing a strong TC hitting the gulf coast, and also that MM5 brings it VERY close to home. Not saying I believe this will happen at all but you can't ignore them either...

BTW Audrey formed in the BOC and moved rapidly north so we're talking about a somewhat different situation.

[frederic79]

If you go strictly by climotology, June 8 is extremely early to expect any significant development. But to me, it looks like two HUGE factors in development potential seem to be possible, if not probable. That is a) forecast low wind shear and b) water temperature. You may say water temps in the 82-83 degree range aren't high enough to support much development, but I remember distinctly that Georges in '98 maintained strong Cat. 2 (105mph sustained/962mb) status over 80-82 degree waters before making landfall on the northern Gulf Coast in late September. (Several cool fronts had cooled the water prior to Georges). I'm not predicting anything, just commenting on conditions that make early development possible.

[x-y-no]

If you go strictly by climotology, June 8 is extremely early to expect any significant development. But to me, it looks like two HUGE factors in development potential seem to be possible, if not probable. That is a) forecast low wind shear and b) water temperature. You may say water temps in the 82-83 degree range aren't high enough to support much development, but I remember distinctly that Georges in '98 maintained strong Cat. 2 (105mph sustained/962mb) status over 80-82 degree waters before making landfall on the northern Gulf Coast in late September. (Several cool fronts had cooled the water prior to Georges). I'm not predicting anything, just commenting on conditions that make early development possible.

Remember, though, that until quite recently the Gulf was cool, so those warm temperatures are in a fairly thin surface layer.

[sponger]

I agree. This whole season is an anomaly with unusually high water temps. Add in no el nino and positive readings for every season variable except one or two, and you have a season that will be unlike any in recent memeory.

[skysummit]

Why are some models bringing it more on a NNW track? Is there something that will push it that way? Is a high forecasted to get stronger from the NE? Just curious because I see it going more due north to NNE.

[loon]

If you go strictly by climotology, June 8 is extremely early to expect any significant development. But to me, it looks like two HUGE factors in development potential seem to be possible, if not probable. That is a) forecast low wind shear and b) water temperature. You may say water temps in the 82-83 degree range aren't high enough to support much development, but I remember distinctly that Georges in '98 maintained strong Cat. 2 (105mph sustained/962mb) status over 80-82 degree waters before making landfall on the northern Gulf Coast in late September. (Several cool fronts had cooled the water prior to Georges). I'm not predicting anything, just commenting on conditions that make early development possible.

Remember, though, that until quite recently the Gulf was cool, so those warm temperatures are in a fairly thin surface layer.

I see most of the GOM had close to 27C temps since early May...it may not be as thin as you think. You are probably right, I just think this disturbance may have some surprises for us ahead...

cheers,
loon

[loon]

Why are some models bringing it more on a NNW track? Is there something that will push it that way? Is a high forecasted to get stronger from the NE? Just curious because I see it going more due north to NNE.

They expect the bermuda high to push more west....or so it is forecasted...

cheers
loon