http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html
Ensembles forecast the NAO to go briefly positive then head back south. This is about the time (9th-11th) that we might see a flare up of activity. While the NAO is only a small piece of the puzzle, I'm guessing it might be timed with a shot of MJO. Of course I haven't researched the MJO all year, but if we're going to get two pops (not saying we are, but....) near the same time, that's often indicative of an MJO pulse as well.
Hey, your guess is as good as mine, but sometimes (changes in or facets of) various indices have been known to correlate with tropical development.
Steve
Possible timing hint for 2005 season?
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