Teleconnections?

[cyclonaut]

Joe Bastardi uses the east coast of Japan as tele-connection to Cape Hatteras for example.In a larger scheme he uses the WPAC as a teleconnection to the west ATL..If a typhoon turns north & hits Japan he'll say there is a chance that a hurricane can recurve & affect the Carolinas 5-7 days later..I've seen it actually work sometimes & be completely off other times.

Is this forecasting method acknowledged by other mets?..& if so do other mets here & abroad apply it to their forecasting methods?

Or is it just one of Joe Bastardi's crazy antics?

[x-y-no]

Well ... if he's being that specific about location, I think he may be oversimplifying quite a bit. Too much depends on the existing setup in the Atlantic basin to allow such a direct correlation.

There is a real basis to the idea, however. When a storm in the WPac recurves, it injects energy into the system of mid-latitude Rossby waves which propagate west to east around the pole. That will both shorten and increase the amplitude of those waves downstream, which means that one can expect a strong trough to dig down over the eastern half of the continental US some days later. If there happened to be a storm in the west Atlantic at that time, it would likely be picked up by that trough.

The other part is that there may be some correlation of cyclogenesis related to the MJO, which propagates west to east at a rate which puts the convective maximum over the Atlantic a couple of weeks or so after it's over the WPac. That's pretty speculative, though, and at any rate there has been no pronounced convective maximum of the MJO at all for a couple of weeks (it does just kind of fade out, now and then).

Jan

[Agua]

Storm2k at it's finest. Thanks Jan.

[cyclonaut]

Thanks Jan.