South La. vulnerable

[sunny]

VERY interesting article.

nola.com



Storming the gates
South Louisiana communities outside the fortlike metro levee system face possible devastation from even a small hurricane

Friday, June 03, 2005

By Matthew Brown
West Bank bureau

SOUTH OF VENICE -- The weather is different down here, where the toe of Louisiana pokes a hundred miles into the Gulf of Mexico. Storms spin through and dump heavy rain when the sun never even blinks in New Orleans. Outside the hurricane protection levee, the sea presses so close that a stiff wind can push tidal swells over roads and into houses.

The forecast is different, too: The low-lying region faces a stronger chance of hurricanes, with the potential for devastation steadily increasing as the saltwater marshes that once cushioned a big storm's blow fall victim to coastal erosion. The marshes are vanishing at a rate of 25 to 30 square miles per year, meaning even a small storm could wreak havoc on the state's southernmost communities.

As hurricane season starts this week, across the region hundreds of millions of dollars are being poured into slowing land loss, into new tidal control levees and into improved hurricane evacuation routes to make escape easier. But government and emergency officials acknowledge such efforts are, in effect, rear-guard actions in the face of an insurmountable enemy.

Exposed to the full wrath of Gulf storms are small fishing villages around Venice, larger settlements such as Grand Isle and Lafitte, and broad swaths of less-densely populated parishes including the west bank of St. Charles and much of Lafourche and Terrebonne.

Authorities now strive to convince Louisiana residents of the new meteorological reality taking hold, particularly outside the fortresslike levee network that rings heavily populated areas such as New Orleans. The new reality is that even small hurricanes could spell doom for coastal Louisiana.

"The landscape is changing; the reality of our topography is changing," said Walter Maestri, director of emergency services in Jefferson Parish. "Lafitte is now the barrier island. They're going to take the first lump. And Grand Isle is just sitting out there. It's like the nose on the prizefighter's face, waiting to get punched."


Building a fortress

More and more, the message is being heard.

When a hurricane like last year's Ivan bears down, fisher Robert DeMoll of the Venice area said, "You'd have to be a fool to stay. And we don't have that many fools."

Even inside the levees, the changing dynamics of Louisiana's coastline are forcing a reassessment of what constitutes a dangerous storm.

The high-priced protection system ringing much of the metro area was designed to withstand up to a Category 3 storm, those with winds from 111 to 130 mph. Now officials want to ratchet up the danger level to include Category 2 storms: those with winds from 96 to 110 mph.

Despite past assurances that the levee system could withstand such a hit, Maestri said it is now possible officials might call for a full evacuation if a Category 2 storm is coming dead on.

"We've been preaching and pleading Category 3, but now we've got to go back and say Category 2," Maestri said. "And people are going to say, 'You don't know what you're talking about.' "

To guard against the greater danger, authorities are racing to plug remaining gaps in the levee system surrounding the metropolitan core. That includes finishing off a $740 million floodwall on the Lake Pontchartrain side of the city, a $315 million levee stretching from Westwego to Harvey, and a $250 million series of levees from New Orleans to Venice that leaves out some sparsely populated areas.

Meanwhile, the Army Corps of Engineers this fall plans to begin building the first of a new breed of small "tidal protection" levees for outlying coastal communities. These would be shorter -- and much cheaper -- than hurricane levees, which range from 9 to more than 15 feet tall.

Their purpose would be twofold: to stave off the wind-driven or small-storm flooding increasingly common in such areas; and, during a bigger storm, to save at least some of what is left behind by evacuees.

About 20 are approved or under consideration, with requests coming in from rural communities including Jean Lafitte, Barataria and Crown Point in Jefferson Parish and Braithwaite Park and Oakville in Plaquemines.

But Gerald Spohrer, executive director of the West Jefferson Levee District, said the steady flow of money pouring into levees both big and small is not keeping pace with physical changes on the coast.

A hundred years ago a 7-foot levee fronted by dense marsh might have kept out a fierce of hurricanes. Now the standard for adequate protection is almost twice as high.

"At some point you're going to lose ground," Spohrer said of the fight to keep pace by hardening defenses. "The best hurricane protection we have is a strong and vital marsh. It does more to reduce the intensity of a storm surge than all the levees in the world."

Shrimper Roland Hingle Sr., 69, remembers sticking out hurricanes as a child growing up in the almost-forgotten community of Hollywood, a small group of homes at the mouth of the Mississippi River in Plaquemines Parish that served a nearby naval base.

Hollywood could be reached only by boat, and Hingle said that in times before modern weather forecasting, storms would sometimes sneak up and slam down on the village before anyone had a chance to get out.

"I remember standing up on the kitchen table to stay out of the water because the house was flooded," he said.


'All of the land is gone'


Today, even though he has since "moved inside" the levee system, about 20 miles upriver to Buras, Hingle said he no longer lingers when a storm is approaching. Last year, when Ivan was still two days away, Hingle and his wife, Barbara, were already on the road, heading toward a daughter's home in Prairieville.

Standing on his shrimp boat at the Venice Marina, Hingle swept his hand in a wide arc, from south to east to north, to emphasize one reason behind his haste to leave: the continuing loss of hundreds of acres of marsh that once shielded the marina and its surroundings.

Though most of Louisiana suffered only a glancing blow from Ivan, Venice was hit hard, with the storm's outer bands toppling trees and causing localized flooding.

"All of the land is gone," Hingle said. "It's mostly all water. If the storm comes through here, we're in trouble."

University of New Orleans sociologist Shirley Laska teamed with UNO pollster Susan Howell to conduct extensive surveys of south Louisiana residents last year to gauge how they react when a hurricane is bearing down.

The results lay bare some of the basic facts emergency workers confront in the face of major storms.

Women are quicker to evacuate than men. People place more stock in TV meteorologists telling them to evacuate than in public officials. And people such as Hingle, who have lived through major storms, are quicker to leave, as are people who understand the changing dynamics of the coast.

"People who believe and understand the new normal are the most likely to evacuate," Laska said.

But the surveys also revealed what Laska considered a dangerous trend among residents of outlying communities: Many who evacuated during hurricanes Lili in 2002 and Georges in 1998 considered themselves safe when they reached urban Jefferson Parish or New Orleans.

In Jefferson, 53 percent of respondents to the survey either stayed nearby or did not evacuate for Georges. In St. Bernard, the figure was 59 percent for Georges, and in Plaquemines, 49 percent for Lili.

Given last year's botched evacuation for Ivan, when some evacuees spent 12 hours or more trying to get only as far as Baton Rouge, some emergency officials fear those numbers could increase next time.

"When I make a recommendation (to evacuate) next time, will they listen?" asked Jesse St. Amant, director of Plaquemines' Office of Emergency Preparedness. "That's a question we have to ask."

Maestri said he deals with halfhearted evacuees -- those willing to leave but not go too far -- every time a storm hits. "They leave Lafitte and they come up to the West Bank Expressway and they think they're safe," he said. "They're not."

DeMoll, the fisher from south of Venice, disagreed. Sometimes he and his family head to Mississippi during a storm, but more likely it's north to New Orleans.

He said he understands the levee system has its limits. But standing on his front porch after a late spring thunderstorm had just passed, with the bayou across the street lapping at the receding shoreline, he said he couldn't fare worse than in Venice.

"It's higher and safer," he said of New Orleans. "Better than staying here."

. . . . . . .


Matthew Brown can be reached at mbrown@timespicayune.com or (504) 826-3784.

[skysummit]

Wow....pretty interesting. So they're actually talking about a major evacuation for a Category 2!?!?!? How is the public going to be convinced to leave? On a show earlier in the week, they mentioned areas would start to evacuate 50 hours before TS winds arrive. That would most likely be a day like today....highs in the 90's, clear skies....how are you going to tell people to leave on such a nice day?

It's going to be interesting this year to just see what the public does, that's for sure!

[sunny]

I think it is Monday night, Channel 4 will do their "Eye on the Storm" special. Should be interesting. Supposed to cover all of the new evacuation procedures and maps, etc.

[HurryKane]

People place more stock in TV meteorologists telling them to evacuate than in public officials.

I find this statement interesting, because I'd bet a winning Powerball ticket that the vast majority of the people ONLY hear about these public-official-issued evacuations via--surprise surprise--the TV meteorologist (or other TV talking heads) they've been watching for a greater percentage of time as a storm approaches.

[Cookiely]

For this much money they can buy some really nice land and move the whole city!!!
To guard against the greater danger, authorities are racing to plug remaining gaps in the levee system surrounding the metropolitan core. That includes finishing off a $740 million floodwall on the Lake Pontchartrain side of the city, a $315 million levee stretching from Westwego to Harvey, and a $250 million series of levees from New Orleans to Venice that leaves out some sparsely populated areas.

[skywarn]

Below is the link for New Orleans contraflow 30 hours before the onset of tropical storm winds (39mph):

http://www.lsp.org/contraflowmap1.html

The link for phased evacuation for Southern Louisiana:
http://www.lsp.org/pdf/Web_StateMap.pdf

[Brent]

An Allison-like system(hardly any wind) sitting over the area for a couple of days would be the ultimate doomsday next to a Cat 4 or 5 barrelling into the city, and it's much more likely.

[sunny]

Below is the link for New Orleans contraflow 30 hours before the onset of tropical storm winds (39mph):

http://www.lsp.org/contraflowmap1.html

The link for phased evacuation for Southern Louisiana:
http://www.lsp.org/pdf/Web_StateMap.pdf

Whelp, I'm in Phase 1 of evacuations.

[skysummit]

Below is the link for New Orleans contraflow 30 hours before the onset of tropical storm winds (39mph):

http://www.lsp.org/contraflowmap1.html

The link for phased evacuation for Southern Louisiana:
http://www.lsp.org/pdf/Web_StateMap.pdf

Whelp, I'm in Phase 1 of evacuations.

I'm right on the borderline for phase 1 and 2. I guess it's a judgement call ?

[sunny]

Below is the link for New Orleans contraflow 30 hours before the onset of tropical storm winds (39mph):

http://www.lsp.org/contraflowmap1.html

The link for phased evacuation for Southern Louisiana:
http://www.lsp.org/pdf/Web_StateMap.pdf

Whelp, I'm in Phase 1 of evacuations.

I'm right on the borderline for phase 1 and 2. I guess it's a judgement call ?

Yep - and that would be to get out of Dodge!!!

[skywarn]

An Allison-like system(hardly any wind) sitting over the area for a couple of days would be the ultimate doomsday next to a Cat 4 or 5 barrelling into the city, and it's much more likely.

Tropical Storm Frances in 1998 caused extensive flooding in New Orleans. No wind to speak of but the rainfall was excessive. Many evacuation routes were flooded especially the I-10 westbound(to exit out of New Orleans).Since Frances a new pumping station has been build there.However it was stressed that an episode where a storm dumps 10-15 inches or more of rainfall, there still would be flooding in that area.See link below for a photo.One week later we were visted by Hurricane Georges.
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf ... ind_1.html

[sunny]

Remember Hurricane Danny in 98 I think it was? Weak Cat 1 Sat over Mobile for two days. Do you know what something like that would do to us? As it is, when you are looking at homes, one of the first questions you ask is "do you flood here?". That is sad.

[skysummit]

Tropical Storm Frances in 1998 caused extensive flooding in New Orleans. No wind to speak of but the rainfall was excessive.

Frances put 2 feet of water in my neighborhood in lower Lafourche Parish where I was living at the time. The water stayed for a week.

[zoeyann]

I'm in chauvin, and they expect me to leave 50 hours before a storm approaches. I can not pack up and leave with two kids every time we are in the 50 hours out cone of uncertainty. I do believe in evacuating but I just will not leave that sonn, and I do not think others will either. Employeers are not going to let people off of work two and a half days before a storm may or may not hit. That would be like closing down all of southeast Louisiana. I'm glad to see that they are trying to come up with a new plan, but I do not think this one is practical.

On the other hand, if any of you saw that article from the Houma courier I posted, if any thing is going to make me leave a the thought of a storm surge making it 45 miles inland when I live maybe 10 miles inland. That will get me packing

[Brent]

I'm in chauvin, and they expect me to leave 50 hours before a storm approaches. I can not pack up and leave with two kids every time we are in the 50 hours out cone of uncertainty.

That's before WATCHES would even be issued. That's a little... absurd.

[Brent]

An Allison-like system(hardly any wind) sitting over the area for a couple of days would be the ultimate doomsday next to a Cat 4 or 5 barrelling into the city, and it's much more likely.

Tropical Storm Frances in 1998 caused extensive flooding in New Orleans. No wind to speak of but the rainfall was excessive. Many evacuation routes were flooded especially the I-10 westbound(to exit out of New Orleans).Since Frances a new pumping station has been build there.However it was stressed that an episode where a storm dumps 10-15 inches or more of rainfall, there still would be flooding in that area.See link below for a photo.One week later we were visted by Hurricane Georges.
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf ... ind_1.html

Ya'll got lucky with Georges... ended up on the weak side. Still bad enough(dang thing was crawling at a snail's pace).

[HoumaLa]

Nice to see all the people in the Houma area on line now.

[skysummit]

Nice to see all the people in the Houma area on line now.

Yea...."Go Houma! Go Houma! Go Houma!"

[cajungal]

Nice to see all the people in the Houma area on line now.

Yea...."Go Houma! Go Houma! Go Houma!"

Yay! More people from my area. Now I can relate. Since I live in Schriever and it is only 9 miles north of Houma. The Houma area is very vunerable just like Venice. Houma is basically the coast now. Not much protection from the Gulf Of Mexico. South of Houma is mostly just marsh and open water now. And there is no way my place of employment is going to close almost 2 days before a storm. They wait until almost the last minute to shut down just like Wal-mart.

[donsutherland1]

Given its topography and the changes taking place (e.g., disappearing marshlands), a major hurricane's making landfall over southern LA could have a catastrophic impact.

Since 1851, LA has seen landfall or been impacted by 17 major hurricanes or approximately 1 every 9 years; the last major hurricane to impact LA was Andrew in 1992, so the state will almost certainly be affected by a major hurricane within a decade or less. The longest period between major hurricane strikes was 23 years. Moreover, there have been clusters of years where such hits have been very frequent: 1855, 1856, 1860/1909, 1915, 1918/1964, 1965, 1969, 1974.

5 major hurricanes brought Category 4 winds to portions of LA and 1 brought Category 5 winds to part of LA.

Two highlights from the 19th Century:

August 10-12th, 1856: Hurricane strikes Isle Derniere, Last Island, a pleasure resort south- southwest of New Orleans. The highest points were under 5 feet of water. The resort hotel and surrounding gambling establishments were destroyed, over 200 people perished, and the island was left void of vegetation and split in half. Only one terrified cow survived on the Isle. Last Island is now only a haven for pelicans and other sea birds.

The rain total at New Orleans reached 13.14". Every house in the town of Abbeville was leveled, including the St. Mary Magdalen Church. Rains from the storm flooded the Mermentau River and destroyed crops along the bottom lands. Area rice fields in Plaquemines parish were under several feet of salt water. Nearly all rice was lost. Orange trees were stripped of their fruit. The steamer Nautilus foundered. The lone survivor cling to a bale of cotton and washed ashore sometime later.

October 1-2nd, 1893: An unheralded storm of great violence moved from the Gulf across the southeastern U.S. It devastated about 500 miles of the coastline from Timbalier Bay to Pensacola. Settlements along Lake Borgne, the Lower Mississippi, and the islands along the coast from the Bayou Lafourche east to the Chandeleurs saw the brunt of the hurricane. Landfall was between New Orleans and Port Eads on October 1st. Winds of 100 m.p.h. were estimated at Grand Isle and at Pointe a la Hache. High winds were noted as far west as Abbeville. A schooner 4 miles north of Pascagoula reported a pressure of 28.65".

At dusk on the 1st of October, hurricane force winds overspread the coast. By 10 p.m., as winds continued to increase, water began covering coastal islands. A gigantic wave then crashed upon the shore of the north end of Grand Isle, destroying everything in its path. Winds went calm as the eye passed overhead between 11 p.m. and midnight. Winds began again in earnest after midnight, then tapered off by dawn.

The storm surge was as high as 15 feet in Louisiana bays, 16 feet at Chandeleur Island. The Barataria Bay lighthouse was almost demolished. The Chandeleur Island lighthouse took on a several foot tilt; waves at times washed over the lantern, which was 50 feet above seas level! Severe damage was dealt to the Lake Borgne lighthouse; its metal roof sheared off by the wind. Two hundred survivors sought refuge at the Port Pontchartrain lighthouse, and its female lightkeeper was publicly recognized.

Two thousand people died, 779 from Cheniere Caminanda and 250 at Grand Lake alone. Immense destruction of shipping occurred, islands were stripped of vegetation, and property losses of around $5 million were seen with the storm. Four churches were blown down across the state. In stature, it was considered more than an equal to the 1856 hurricane.

One of the survivors was rescued in a makeshift raft off South Pass 8 days later, almost 100 miles from where he began in Cheniere Caminanda. Also of interest, a man named Jean Henriot wrote a poem about the storm. He was a resident of Cheniere Caminanda at the time and left the island to settle in Westwego soon after the storm. The poem was passed on from generation to generation before finally being put in print fully in 1973. Most people local to that section of the state still tell tales of what went on in that storm over a century ago.

Source: National Weather Service Forecast Office, Lake Charles