Local Newspaper Article on Hurricanes

[Guest]

Officials agree: Start preparing for storms

By Timothy Williams
The Baytown Sun
Published May 28, 2003

BAYTOWN - There will be bumper-to-bumper traffic between Baytown and Dayton, and that doesn't even account for the population growth in the area since 20 years ago when residents last felt a major hurricane.

Local emergency management officials worry what impact a major hurricane will have on homes and businesses constructed since Alicia pounded the coastal inland with 96 mph winds, 20 years ago this August.

Officials also worry that evacuation routes will clog under the pressure of an increased population, estimated to be more than 3.6 million, attempting to flee the hurricane's path.

"We can't be apathetic to what is going to happen," said Rusty Cornelius, Harris County Office of Emergency Management community liaison. "We're due for a major storm."

Hurricane forecasters agree.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hurricane experts predict the development of 11 to 15 tropical storms during the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season, of which six to nine could become hurricanes.

Two to four of these could be classified as major hurricanes - Category 3 or higher with sustained winds of 111 mph. Hurricane season is June 1 though Nov. 30.

In 2002, there were 12 named storms of which Gustav, Isidore, Kyle and Lili became hurricanes.

Main contributors to the increased hurricane chance include a favorable African Easterly Jet, weaker trade winds and warmer Atlantic Ocean temperatures.

NOAA's National Weather Service is the primary source of forecasts and weather warnings for the United States and its territories.

While older Baytown neighborhoods weathered Alicia in '83 and her much larger, more powerful predecessor Carla in September 1961, construction completed in the last 20 years has dodged similar threats.

"We have neighborhoods where there were woods and grassy areas, a lot variables that haven't been through a hurricane," said Bernard Olive, Baytown emergency coordinator.

Drawing on a history in the area dating back to 1949, Olive said he's seen what high tides associated with a storm's surge can look like in Baytown. Goose Creek rose until it covered Ash Street during Carla, he said.

The hurricane also inundated the Brownwood subdivision and wrecked the causeway between Lee Drive and Hog Island.

Faced with such destruction, residents who opt to flee a major hurricane, especially at the last minute, will face an evacuation complicated by more people living in Harris and Galveston counties. Texas law does not allow for mandatory evacuations.

Traffic is likely to be bumper -to-bumper, moving as slow as one to five miles per hour, Olive said.

Hurricane Allen in 1980 illustrated this when traffic backed up about 24 miles along Highway 146, from Baytown to Dayton, he said.

Galveston County residents are likely to continue to use Highway 146 when evacuating, he said.

"Factor a population increase in Galveston County and the area since Alicia and you see roadways are going to be extremely crowded," he said.

Area residents will get caught up in this larger exodus if they are unprepared, he said.

"If you hesitate, you increase your chance of being caught out in a hurricane," he said.

Residents need to be ready to leave in 15 minutes of evacuation notice, Cornelius said. That means having a prepared, disaster supply kit in the home or automobile.

Included in the kit should be a battery-operated flashlight and radio and a three day supply of food, clothes and medicine, he said.

Despite best plans, people can end up in shelters when evacuating, and that is when the items will be most needed, he said.

"I am surprised how often people end up in the shelter without even a change of socks," he said.

Non-perishable food, such as cereal, rice, and canned meats and vegetables, will keep without refrigeration and could be cooked, or eaten without preparation.

Officials advised that residents stay tuned to weather updates during the season and get information from multiple sources, including broadcast outlets and government Web sites, such as the Harris County site, http://www.hcoem.org, or NOAA's Web site, http://www.srh.noaa.gov.

Evacuation for East Harris County residents follows all northern routes though it's recommended to take Highway 146 and Highway 59.

Chambers County residents are advised to evacuate north along Highway 146 or take Highway 61 to Highway 90 and proceed on all routes north of there. Avoid evacuation along routes parallel to the coast because a hurricane can turn 90 degrees leaving evacuees to drive through the hurricane.

A free hurricane workshop covering Alicia and hurricane preparedness is scheduled 8 a.m. to noon today at the Pasadena Convention Center, 7900 Fairmont Parkway.

An informational meeting about hurricanes will be held for Baytown residents at 6:30 p.m., June 19, at City Hall Council Chambers, 2401 Market Street. Officials will be on hand to answer questions related to hurricane preparedness.

The following are storm names for the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season: a-Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fabian, Grace, Henri, Isabel, Juan, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor and Wanda. A freak late-April subtropical system in the Atlantic Ocean already has exhausted the name Ana for 2003.

[wx247]

Great article! Very informative and it sounds like that area may have a big problem on their hands.

[Rainband]

Yes it does..hope you don't have to deal with a storm this year..me either for that matter we have little or no shelters!! :o

[Guest]

One thing I have to go down Hwy 146 to get home. I don't even want to think what happens if they order mandotory evacutions. Let's hope if I have this situation - I'm already home.

Patricia

[wx247]

:o Maybe if people pay attention and don't all wait until the last minute to evacuate then there won't be as much of a traffic problem.

[Rainband]

Thats a big IF!! Hope they all take this year seriously!!!

[Guest]

I have another article I am going to post - in regards to Galveston - having a plan and not being complancent. Do you think people will change - I doubt this year will be any different then others. Its been 20 years since Alicia!

Patricia

[Rainband]

Unfortunately TICKA..I think people will remain complacent until something happens..I think the population has become used to complacency..especially with this up and down terror alert ..this IMHO will only make the complacency in other areas of their life even greater!! :o Add the fact that most of the United States population has never been through a hurricane and thats a recipe for complancency!!!

[Steve]

Good article Ticka. There is no doubt that most of the evacutation routes can't funnel out enough traffic due to the coastal boom of the last 20-50 years. And that's as evident in coastal Texas as it is anywhere.

This is a particularly important article for this year. Despite what other official or amateur forecasts are saying, I think the entire Republic of Texas is open for business this year. Hopefully people will pay attention to what's going on around them and make the right choices. That's all we can ever hope for.

Steve

[cycloneye]

Ticka good articule that this season may be very important because the pattern that is shaping up is for somewhere in the texas coast to get something.

[Rainband]

I understand they say it will be an active season but what determines how many, if any ,landfalls there will be and how do you guys know which states will get hit?? Please explain!! thanks

[Steve]

opinion and speculation. How did I arrive at the chance for Texas landfalls in 2003 in my forecast? If you watch the progression/retrogression of ridges/and trofs in North America, where they are relative to the summer, and look at other factors (ENSO, SOI, NAO, SST Profiles, Azores High, QBO et al) to determine what type of season we're going to have, you can come up with a guess at target areas for Gulf of Mexico landfalls. For instance, go to your favorite water vapor loop (mine is Goes 8). Run the long (30 frames on G8) loop every day and watch it for a few weeks. After a period of a couple of weeks, you can get the idea whether the overall pattern is progressing or retrogressing (that is moving west to east or backing east to west). If a trof axis (that is roughly the middle of a trof) was over TN/KY, then 2 weeks later, you see one over AR/MO, then 3 weeks after that, it's over OK/KS, then you'll see how the pattern is . The further west the mean trof is (relative to the setup I'm seeing for this year), the further west storms potentially could make landfall. Now this isn't a given by any stretch. There are tons of exceptions. It's just a hint that the weather gives us. If, for instance, there was also another trof off the east coast that was dominant in the western Atlantic, chances of recurvature before waves/storms get into the Gulf might be increased. But that doesn't take into account storms that actually form in the Gulf or BoC where all bets are off.

In any event, it looks to me that not only will Texas be open early season (June), but they might still be a player in early September.

Steve

[Rainband]

Thanks steve..I see your points!!