I have a question.........

[swimaster20]

My dad has been telling me because of all the dirt/dust devils he is seeing that it means there's a lot of cycloninc activity in the atmosphere which means there will be an above average hurricane season. Now, I'm not sure if he's right or not, so I am going to ask ya'll's opinion on it and if he is right or not.

[gatorcane]

dust/dirt devils and hurricane activity? My initial answer is that he is wrong. There is no relationship at all...just curious what dust devils and where is he speaking?

[swimaster20]

He's saying since there has been a lot of dust devils, he thinks that there is a lot cyclonic activity in the atmosphere, which hurricanes are cyclones, so I guess that is what he is figuring

[Skywatch_NC]

Hopefully one of the S2K pro mets can help you on this one, swimaster.

[cycloneye]

About those dust devils I dont know if they are a forecast predictor but I can tell you that here in Puerto Rico the old people say that a fruit called here Aguacate can predict how the season will be in terms of threats to this island.If there are plenty of Aguacates around the farms that indicates that PR will be threatened.On the contrary if there are only a few Aguacates it indicates less chance for a hit here.

By the way last year there were plenty of Aguacates and Jeanne made landfall here.

[BayouVenteux]

I don't think so, but if the heat and drought conditions don't give way to the typical summertime "popcorn" thunderstorm regime pretty soon, you're going to continue to see these dust devils.

BTW, I saw two small devils kick up today while I was driving around up in East Baton Rouge Parish.

[swimaster20]

About those dust devils I dont know if they are a forecast predictor but I can tell you that here in Puerto Rico the old people say that a fruit called here Aguacate can predict how the season will be in terms of threats to this island.If there are plenty of Aguacates around the farms that indicates that PR will be threatened.On the contrary if there are only a few Aguacates it indicates less chance for a hit here.

By the way last year there were plenty of Aguacates and Jeanne made landfall here.

That's a cool way to predict.

[Huckster]

Hurricane activity is not related to how many dust devils there are. I think dust devils usually happen when it's rather hot and not windy and there's uneven heating taking place. I can't remember their causes exactly. Hurricanes are a lot more complex than that and are pretty much unrelated to dust devils. It's not really cyclonic force in the atmosphere that makes hurricanes spin, it's the Coriolis force/effect. I think Derek Ortt might have posted some information on that before, so hopefully he and some other knowledgable people will help out here.

[MWatkins]

My dad has been telling me because of all the dirt/dust devils he is seeing that it means there's a lot of cycloninc activity in the atmosphere which means there will be an above average hurricane season. Now, I'm not sure if he's right or not, so I am going to ask ya'll's opinion on it and if he is right or not.

As several have mentioned today already...there is no direct relationship between dust devils and hurricane activity.

Dust devils are related more to surface heating over land and occur on very small scales. Hurricanes are much larger, relatively, and obviously occur over water. The two processes have no direct link at all.

However...there may (may be) some sort of indirect link. For example, conditions that would spur dust-devil development in a paticular location (dry, hot) would suggest there is some ridging in place in that location...and perhaps there could be a connection between dry and hot conditions in one place and landfalling hurricanes (due to the pattern...not the dust devils themselves) later on. This would need more than a quick reply to research...but the link...i bet would be very very small at best and not significant enough to worry about.

Here's an old article about the process...I'm sure the thinking on these small scale systems have changed in the last 30 years or so but...here you go...

http://www.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF2/227.html

MW

[Radar]

I have also heard a few old wives tales about Hurricane predictors from some of our older citizens. One elderly lady told me they could tell when a storm was brewing out in the gulf because all the sea gulls would leave the beach day and days in advance. So if you didnt see a gull, you'd better get to steppin'. I guess the dust devil's theory and the Puerto rican fruit theory carries over from the days before they had the techonology they do now and they just had to rely on instinct and changes in the environment to indicate whether there was potential for a bad hurricane season or not. However, it still makes for very interesting reading. Does anyone have an old wives tale handed down to them from a seasoned weather watcher?

[vbhoutex]

The gulls is not an old wives tale. It is indeed a predictor of somethng brewing in the GOM. I've seen it more than once. They do not all leave, but you will find many more much furthre inland than normal and they do get out before the storms arrive, at least I've seen in on the Northerb Gulf coast.

[MWatkins]

The gulls is not an old wives tale. It is indeed a predictor of somethng brewing in the GOM. I've seen it more than once. They do not all leave, but you will find many more much furthre inland than normal and they do get out before the storms arrive, at least I've seen in on the Northerb Gulf coast.

That seems to make sense to me. The air in the outflow portion of an approaching hurricane is hotter and drier than normal and I would not be surprised at all that the urge to flee such an environment would be naturally selected into these otherwise sea-faring birds over generations. Clearly...the birds that did not recognize the environmental changes would cease to exist after a storm event.

Just as the animals in Thiland and elsewhere were able to sense the tsunami and get the heck out of the way...such go the gulls.

MW

[Radar]

Oh, maybe wives tales was not the phrase I should have chosen. I did the believe the woman I spoke too. Like I said before today's technology people of previous generations had to rely on changes in environment and instinct as predictors of hurricanes and there is alot of truth to be found in those. Maybe I should have said "old methods" of predicting hurricanes? Sorry I wasnt clear on that.

[MWatkins]

Oh, maybe wives tales was not the phrase I should have chosen. I did the believe the woman I spoke too. Like I said before today's technology people of previous generations had to rely on changes in environment and instinct as predictors of hurricanes and there is alot of truth to be found in those. Maybe I should have said "old methods" of predicting hurricanes? Sorry I wasnt clear on that.

Whelp...the old mariner saying:

Red sky at night...salior's delight. Red sky in morning...sailor take warning.

Red skys in the morning suggest that dust...etc are trapped in the low levels more so than normal. This also suggests that you're in the outflow region of a tropical cyclone and that whatever is creating that outflow is on the way.

Of course these old sayings have given way to satellite and models etc...but there is still some truth to them IMHO.

MW

[vbhoutex]

Don't get me wrong on this. There are many old wives tales about the weather and other things that don't hold water(or anything else). This just happened to be one of the things that in 50 years on the Gulf coast I had actually observed. Mike's explanantion makes sense too.

[beenthru6]

I have heard people here on SC's coast say the same thing about waterspouts. If you see waterspouts forming in the spring jsut off the coast, then they say hurricane season will be worse than normal. Don't know what they base that on, but I have heard it here for 20 years now.

[LaBreeze]

I have heard of this old saying as well - I know that the old Cajuns around here used to say that. I really don't think that there is a correlation, but hey, there are some rather strange things out there that maybe we should observe more closely.

[dhweather]

One that is pretty popular here is the production of the pecan trees.

More pecans = more hurricanes.

I've been told by several folks that 1969 was a banner year for pecans,
until Camille came through.

[GalvestonDuck]

Wasn't there someone back in the GoPBI days who predicted something about 'canes (# of named storms? # of majors? something like that) based on the # of habaneros that turned orange by a certain date?

[vbhoutex]

One that is pretty popular here is the production of the pecan trees.

More pecans = more hurricanes.

I've been told by several folks that 1969 was a banner year for pecans,
until Camille came through.

I wish I could remember what the production was on our Pecan tree the year before we had Alicia!