more north turn

[boca]

looks like the system is now moving more northerly now as opposed to ENE

[gatorcane]

I already have a post like this boca. lol. I started it last night. YOu are right though....

[Blown Away]

Could you send me the link that you are looking at. Thanks!

[gatorcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[boca]

check this out:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-ir4-loop.html

[dhweather]

Tough to say for sure, but it looks like its moving almost due NE

[gatorcane]

yes, but it looks like its aiming more for NW El Salvador...not central EL Salvador where the middle of the cone is...

[dhweather]

Where's the recon when you need it!

[x-y-no]

Tough to say for sure, but it looks like its moving almost due NE

Yeah ... looking at the IR, it's pretty clear that the apparent turn one sees in the visible loop is really a flareup on the WNW side of the center.

Movement looks to be NE, headed towards the western end of El Salvador.

Jan

[Weatherboy1]

but the latest NHC advisory does indeed acknowledge the slight northward jog, and adjusts the forecast path through 48 hours ... but not beyond that. They still expect an acceleration to the NE and ENE well south of FL and a transition to extratropical status. Sounds about right to me, forecast-wise.

[x-y-no]

but the latest NHC advisory does indeed acknowledge the slight northward jog, and adjusts the forecast path through 48 hours ... but not beyond that. They still expect an acceleration to the NE and ENE well south of FL and a transition to extratropical status. Sounds about right to me, forecast-wise.

From the 8am pdt discussion:

"Adrian is now moving directly toward the northeast...045/8. Mainly
due to the recent motion...the official forecast is adjusted
slightly to the right of the previous advisory through about 48
hours. The track forecast reasoning otherwise remains essentially
the same."

[gatorcane]

it's pulling a Charley only in the other direction. lol.

[Weatherboy1]

From the 8am pdt discussion:

"Adrian is now moving directly toward the northeast...045/8. Mainly
due to the recent motion...the official forecast is adjusted
slightly to the right of the previous advisory through about 48
hours. The track forecast reasoning otherwise remains essentially
the same."

You are correct, the NHC initiallly said they would adjust their forecast path to the RIGHT. But they then corrected themselves, as you can see here:

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 191508
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8... CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005

...CORRECTED SECOND PARAGRAPH...
...OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT...NOT RIGHT...OF PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...

But regardless of the initial shift in track to the left, this thing still will almost certainly pass well S of FL.