Tropical storm Adrian forecast(My unoffical forecast!!!)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Tropical storm Adrian
2:30pm pst
5-19-2005


Centered 11.6/91.6
Winds 55 mph
Gust 65 mph
Pressure 997 millibars
Movement northeast at 8 mph

...............
Discussion

Tropical storm Adrian, is moving towards the central American coastline this morning. What to expect from this storm is heavy rain. Which "could" cause flooding or Mudslides. Rainfall amounts of 5 inches upwards of 20 inches is likely.

Tropical storm Adrian, earlier today around noon to 2pm looked like a hurricane. A nice banding eye had formed. In 85h data supported it. We think that for a short time it was a 65 knot hurrricane. Even so not offically(Nhc).

Over the evening the pool of dry air to the west/Northwest, of the tropical cyclone, got sucked into the system. In which killed off most of the convection. But a new area of convection appears to have formed over the last 6 hours. The outflow still looks fair...But with increasing wind shear over the system. Also the upper level high over the system, looks to be weaking. With wind shear over the last 3 to 6 hours up to 10 knots stronger.

Chances are that this will remain a strong tropical storm. On what is to be expected the ship models have been doing a good job with this storm. In which case we will fellow. The Gfdl on the other hand has been overhyping this storm. The Global models Gfs,cmc shows about the same. I'm going for a 65 mph tropical storm at lanfall. As it moves over central America. Remember those mountains are between 5 to 10 k tall. They will likely distory the inner core of our cyclone. The latest 00z globals show between a more east-northeastward track of the gfs. To the new more northeastward track of the Cmc,Gfdl models. In the gfdl in cmc wents to redevelop this over the western caribbean. Which might be because it moves north sotrm over water faster.

The shear models show that the winds shear over the next 36 to 72 hours, over the western Caribbean. Will only get more unfavable. In which case I'm not going with the models up above.


The trough that is digging in over the central United states. The Subtropical jet stream is to the north. In which is the main factor. On where this system, will likely be going over the next few days. All globals pretty much agree on a a speed up of the cyclone over the next 24 hours. With only a few differces...After 48 to 72 hours it go's a little more spreaded between the Gfs models or hurricane models which takes this more to the east course. In the Cmc,Nogaps like talked above that wents to get it over water fast. I'm thinking a landfall just below 13 north. While entering back into the caribbean around 16.5 north. Then moving the system between the Gfdl in Gfs models over eastern Cuba at 60 to 72 hours time frame. The system then should become extratropical.

Winds forecast
0 55 mph
12 60 mph
18 50 mph inland
24 40 mph inland
36 30 mph back over the caribbean
48 40 mph
60 30 mph over eastern Cuba
72 40 mph extratropical

Forecaster Matthew

[george_r_1961]

Good discussion Matt.