Tropical Storm Adrian Advisory Number 6
Statement as of 8:00 PM PDT on May 18, 2005
...Adrian headed for the coast of Central America...
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the
coast of El Salvador. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the
Pacific coast of Guatemala and the Pacific coast of Honduras...
including the golfo de fonseca.
Interests in Central America should closely monitor the progress of
this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 8 PM PDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was
located near latitude 11.2 north..longitude 92.0 west or about
255 miles... 410 km...southwest of San Salvador El Salvador.
Adrian is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph
...13 km/hr...and a generally northeastward motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast...and Adrian could become a
hurricane before it reaches the coast.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.
Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches...with isolated higher
amounts of near 20 inches in the mountains...can be expected in
association with Adrian. This system also has the potential to
produce torrential rainfall over other parts of Central America
during the next few days. These rains are likely to cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide level is
possible near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Repeating the 8 PM PDT position...11.2 N... 92.0 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 997 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 11 PM PDT followed by the next complete advisory at 2 am
PDT.
Forecaster Pasch
No big changes in intensity nor direction from the 5 Pm EDT one.
Advisory 11 PM EDT=60 mph,ENE at 8 mph
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cycloneye
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Advisory 11 PM EDT=60 mph,ENE at 8 mph
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed May 18, 2005 9:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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cycloneye
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Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number 6
Statement as of 8:00 PM PDT on May 18, 2005
Deep convection diminished earlier this evening...but this was
probably a diurnal fluctuation. Recent images show a small area of
deep convection redeveloping near/over the estimated center.
Upper-level outflow is being impeded over the southwestern
semicircle of the system and there are indications of slightly
increased southwesterly shear over the storm. Adrian could still
intensify into a hurricane before it reaches the coast...if the
shear does not become too strong. Adrian's low-level circulation
will be severely disrupted when it crosses over Central America.
Thereafter...global model guidance shows increasing vertical shear
due to strong upper-level west-southwesterly flow...which will not
favor re-intensification. If it survives...the system should lose
tropical characteristics as it interacts with an increasingly
baroclinic environment late in the forecast period.
There is scatter in the center fixes...which makes the initial
motion...065/07...rather uncertain. There are no important changes
to the track forecast reasoning. A large mid-level trough to the
north of Adrian should steer the tropical cyclone northeastward
with a gradual increase in forward speed. The current official
forecast is just slightly slower than the previous one during the
first couple of days.
It should be emphasized that the biggest threat from Adrian is heavy
rain...which will likely produce flash flooding and potentially
devastating mud slides over the highly mountainous terrain of
Central America.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 19/0300z 11.2n 92.0w 50 kt
12hr VT 19/1200z 11.9n 91.0w 60 kt
24hr VT 20/0000z 13.1n 89.6w 65 kt
36hr VT 20/1200z 14.3n 88.0w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 21/0000z 15.8n 86.0w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 22/0000z 19.5n 81.0w 30 kt
96hr VT 23/0000z 23.0n 75.0w 30 kt
120hr VT 24/0000z 26.0n 68.0w 30 kt...extratropical
Statement as of 8:00 PM PDT on May 18, 2005
Deep convection diminished earlier this evening...but this was
probably a diurnal fluctuation. Recent images show a small area of
deep convection redeveloping near/over the estimated center.
Upper-level outflow is being impeded over the southwestern
semicircle of the system and there are indications of slightly
increased southwesterly shear over the storm. Adrian could still
intensify into a hurricane before it reaches the coast...if the
shear does not become too strong. Adrian's low-level circulation
will be severely disrupted when it crosses over Central America.
Thereafter...global model guidance shows increasing vertical shear
due to strong upper-level west-southwesterly flow...which will not
favor re-intensification. If it survives...the system should lose
tropical characteristics as it interacts with an increasingly
baroclinic environment late in the forecast period.
There is scatter in the center fixes...which makes the initial
motion...065/07...rather uncertain. There are no important changes
to the track forecast reasoning. A large mid-level trough to the
north of Adrian should steer the tropical cyclone northeastward
with a gradual increase in forward speed. The current official
forecast is just slightly slower than the previous one during the
first couple of days.
It should be emphasized that the biggest threat from Adrian is heavy
rain...which will likely produce flash flooding and potentially
devastating mud slides over the highly mountainous terrain of
Central America.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 19/0300z 11.2n 92.0w 50 kt
12hr VT 19/1200z 11.9n 91.0w 60 kt
24hr VT 20/0000z 13.1n 89.6w 65 kt
36hr VT 20/1200z 14.3n 88.0w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 21/0000z 15.8n 86.0w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 22/0000z 19.5n 81.0w 30 kt
96hr VT 23/0000z 23.0n 75.0w 30 kt
120hr VT 24/0000z 26.0n 68.0w 30 kt...extratropical
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cycloneye
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